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Moderator: GOLDEN-ARM
Nasadowsk wrote:Note that Tier 4 will take place in 2015, and will REQUIRE the use of catalytic aftertreatment.I wouldn't be so quick to write off EMD. Besides, people have been saying EMDs couldn't pass EPA tier requirements for as long as I can remember, but they just keep chugging along. Is there not a UP SD60 running right now in California with exhaust after treatment installed? If that technology will work on an SD60, who knows how effective it could be on a SD70ACe?. Second, I seriously doubt there will be any new nuke plants online by 2015. If you announced plans to build one today, it would take about that long just to get approval to build it, IF you could get approval at all.
My guesses:
* EMD will be out of the new locomotive bussiness by 2010.
* GE will have to update the GEVO by 2015.
* You may see a few European firms try to get in, via switcher and passenger applications.
* Mainline electrification might not look so bad, once the costs of buying/maintaining Tier 4 spec locomotives gets looked at. Don't forget that there's likely to be a LOT of new nuke plants coming on line by then.
junction tower wrote:I wouldn't be so quick to write off EMD. Besides, people have been saying EMDs couldn't pass EPA tier requirements for as long as I can remember, but they just keep chugging along. Is there not a UP SD60 running right now in California with exhaust after treatment installed? If that technology will work on an SD60, who knows how effective it could be on a SD70ACe?. Second, I seriously doubt there will be any new nuke plants online by 2015. If you announced plans to build one today, it would take about that long just to get approval to build it, IF you could get approval at all.Several plants have already gotten their early site permits, actually, and are expected to file for their construction and operating licenses next year. They plan to start pumping out electricity in 2012 or 13, according to this link. Still, that wouldn't be enough juice for massive mainline electrification. You're going to see plenty more EMDs, as well as Green Goats, Wabtec/MPs, and GEs with diesel prime movers.