Gotta deal with the NIMBY's first. It's still a little too early to be talking about this thing as a locked-n'-loaded reality.
The other variable to consider: any new transload spot in CT is, on the merits, sloppy seconds to the most ideally located spot for such activity: Cedar Hill Yard. The long arm of Conrail paper barriers and CSX indifference has kept anyone from being able to do anything with that site, because up until now CSX has valued competitive protectionism there more than it's valued their piddling revenues from CH or any deal-making to cash out of there (with loosened, but not necessarily abolished paper barriers).
Well, that was before the bull in a China shop Hunter Harrison came on the scene and opened his mouth for the whole world to hear about how CSX no longer gives two craps about protectionism and is now looking to sell! sell! sell! all non-strategic territory. Harrison may be gone, and his successors may have already about-faced on the Howard St. Tunnel project in Baltimore...but his handpicked executives are probably still sympatico with most of his big claims. And certainly if they're going to shed territory without throwing caution to the wind about protectionism, Cedar Hill ranks near the top of the list on properties to move first. They've never used it beyond the bare minimum, so it's less valuable to them than any of the other rumored spin-offs like the Montreal Sub. which has indeed gotten targeted investment in the post-Conrail era. But both G&W and PAS would pay good money to have their rights loosened up there, so selling CH (along with dumping the New Haven Line to state line or New Rochelle on P&W) would unquestionably make them more money than holding onto it. The only variable is how much value do they place on protectionism. Apparently near-zero nowadays. You could've made an argument even pre-EHH that selling to G&W and loosening their barriers while keeping NS's access bottled up airtight would've been a very prudent transaction for them to make. But if it's still EHH's edict governing from the grave, maybe it's anything goes now? Up to and including PAS getting an implant @ CH for a major transloading operation.
2018 is going to see some first action on CSX territorial dispersals because inertia-of-motion has been lurching that way; the reigning executives may be a little less willy-nilly about recklessly dumping baby with bathwater, but they're still going to proceed with some very big outsource transactions this year. And there's no reason dollars-and-sense why Connecticut wouldn't still be near the top of that list of properties to move, especially if there are multiple big-pocketed bidders likely in-play with strategic interest in a Cedar Hill presence. So you never know...PAS could be charging ahead with Naugatuck now, but also working the phones with G&W about Cedar Hill to see if the two can mutually carve it up and get CSX to bite on a joint offer. And if they succeed...well, Naugatuck doesn't need to happen anymore and they don't need to sweat out the NIMBY's or the approvals because they'll have their golden parcel and a Plate F/Class 6 route straight to it.
Doesn't mean the above scenario is likely to happen, but this is a dynamic and potentially fast-changing environment. Nobody thought this Naugatuck site would be a thing until a month ago when it very suddenly became a potentially very big thing. And CSX lurks with its potential game-changing big-thing property and the stated willingness to offer it up with the unthinkable: loosened or abolished paper barriers. We could see some wild mood swings this year as plans dramatically get dashed, come on the table, come off the table, come on the table all over again, and so on. Very volatile environment...though probably volatile in a GOOD way for the insurgent carriers sniffing around for new opportunities in this neck of the woods.
Last edited by MEC407 on Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: unnecessary quoting