Potential PAR/PAS Traffic Growth

[johnpbarlow]

A bit of good news for a change: Stopped by the ex-CSX Ford unload yard at Ayer on Friday 3/6/20 and saw that a Piggypacker is parked there and new track skates have been installed on one of the 2 cleared tracks. Perhaps this is in preparation for a ramp up in trash container loading using the re-purposed Maersk Sealand containers that we see running double-stacked in a 5 well car on 11R/16R?

[PBMcGinnis]

Yes that is exactly what it is.
There will now be 2 trash shippers in Ayer. The ex-Maersk boxes at the old auto facility and the blue boxes loaded over at intermodal ramp.

[newpylong]

Looks like some brush cutting occurred too. The old Ford yard was largely reclaimed by nature until recently.

[johnpbarlow]

Anybody know the shipper is that is using these Maersk Sealand containers?

[johnpbarlow]

In case you are curious where all those double stacked Maersk/Sealand containers on 11R/11Z loaded with trash originate, here's a photo of the long moribund "Ford Yard" at Ayer, MA that CSX had been leasing (PAS built a new facility just east of this location at the former Sanvel site to unload autos). You can see an empty 5 well car, two fully loaded 5 well cars likely ready to head south, and what looks to be a brand new piggypacker. After I captured this photo late morning on 5/20/20, a tractor labelled "Link Environmental" (of Smithfield RI, ~38 miles south of Ayer) pulled a Maersk container out of the yard. Trains EDPO/POED transport these containers between Ayer and E Deerfield (although some times a local will take the outbound containers from Ayer to Fitchburg yard so POED can make the pick-up).

[fromway]

Actually, this is about the potential for lost business. Nestles is thinking about selling its Poland Spring and other regional water bottling plants. Due to discount water competition it will concentrate on higher end products. No more worrying about need for more space to delivery Poland Springs to the metro area.

[gokeefe]

I think Poland Spring is going to remain as a significant growth opportunity for quite some time to come. Just uncertain right now when. Probably not in the next two years.

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[Gilbert B Norman]

Over at the "For Sale" topic, I've addressed what if a buyer were to fix up the Short Lines through Eastern Maine, as well as the MEC itself, so as to have a competitive rail routing with CP-M, which also needs a little work while we're at it.

[fromway]

Remember, the gateway into Saint John through Maine is the NBSR. If you can get to Brownville then you will use the NBSR. With two different systems feeding into Brownville, I am sure that the Irving's would appreciate the opportunity to have the two carriers in a bidding war for their services. NBSR is doing a lot of MOW work currently to update their right of way to satisfy the CP traffic that they anticipated. I am sure they would like to have the extra dollars from another carrier to line their pockets.

[Gilbert B Norman]

The more I learn about the Port of Ssint John, the more I realize that its capacity to handle tonnage/TEU's is severely constrained by, guess who..God!

[bsweep]

Exactly. Obviously CP doesn't have Halifax and Saint John certainly is probably a better port for some firms than the time to reach CP in Montreal. Searsport will allow CP to ship potash. Those two incremental additions to the Moosehead and NBSR are clearly why CP pulled the trigger. Obviously at some point crude and ethanol products to the Irving refinery also add into the traffic mix for them.

That said, I don't think the calculation is the same for Topper as it pertains to Saint John. NS already has plenty of eastern seaboard port activity. If they are looking at Pan Am, I am sure they won't turn down incremental traffic including that from boats already doing CP business. But I doubt the line to Keag will be quickly rebuilt for expedited stack trains.

[Gilbert B Norman]

Continuing with Mr. Sweeps line of thought, with a tidal velocity of 10 kts, and a flood/ebb range, in some locations, of 50' there is only a limited "window" for vessels to dock or sail at Saint John. That means there is probably two "windows" daily of two hours each during which vessels can dock or sail. If an inland transportation company - rail, highway, dog sled - is late delivering, a sailing could be delayed by twelve hours.

That, volks, puts a "whale" of a constraint upon the Port's viability.

Either at this or the parallel "For Sale" topic, Mr. Hadfield (ghCBNS) noted that tides at Halifax are a "non-issue" for ocean-going vessels. Anyone care to bring God before a regulatory agency citing the unfair competition He causes?

[newpylong]

Exactly. Obviously CP doesn't have Halifax and Saint John certainly is probably a better port for some firms than the time to reach CP in Montreal. Searsport will allow CP to ship potash. Those two incremental additions to the Moosehead and NBSR are clearly why CP pulled the trigger. Obviously at some point crude and ethanol products to the Irving refinery also add into the traffic mix for them.

That said, I don't think the calculation is the same for Topper as it pertains to Saint John. NS already has plenty of eastern seaboard port activity. If they are looking at Pan Am, I am sure they won't turn down incremental traffic including that from boats already doing CP business. But I doubt the line to Keag will be quickly rebuilt for expedited stack trains.

Correct, none of what is going on in Maine figures into "Topper". They aren't interested in East of Ayer one bit. They may buy all of PAS to protect their business but that is it, and they likely won't have to do that.

[bostontrainguy]

Continuing with Mr. Sweeps line of thought, with a tidal velocity of 10 kts, and a flood/ebb range, in some locations, of 50' there is only a limited "window" for vessels to dock or sail at Saint John. That means there is probably two "windows" daily of two hours each during which vessels can dock or sail . . .

That, volks, puts a "whale" of a constraint upon the Port's viability.

True but the port has no congestion at all. They just need to time their arrivals and departures I guess. How many hours does a ship have to wait to dock in New Jersey? I don't know the answer but I have seen many ships lined up at the harbor anchorage sites waiting to come into major ports. I think they are pretty used to waiting.

[Gilbert B Norman]

And there you have it, Mr. Trainguy.

With Bay of Fundy tidal conditions affecting the "windows" of times avsilable for docking and sailing at The Port of Saint John, it cannot begin to match the Port of Halifax.

Once again, if someone thinks the Maritime Provinces should have two competitive ports, best talk to God about that.

As is, it would appear to me that JD Irving "owns" the Port, as well as most of the town. They own the railroads to the West into Maine, which serve their Timber interests. After Megantic, I'd be surprised if a car placarded HAZMAT 1267 ever operated on the CP-M again. I understand that Irving now imports crude from the Middle East for its refinery operations.