CN9634 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 6:11 pm
What you have to understand is that Saint John is the 25 year answer (mistake) to Halifax and ultimately Montreal. If you see the trajectory of CN at Halifax then you understand the potential that SJ has for CPKC. That isn't built overnight, but the interest is there and SJ can take big ships which gives it a lot of runway
I think my first attempt at making a reply didn't go through, so lets try it again.
I am starting to think Saint John might still be a massive mistake, but for different reasons. I get that the traffic doesn't materialize overnight, nor does the demand. I understand that. But at this point, we are going on 5 years (half a decade) since CP started marketing for it, and for the longest time they were going hard on it. But by this point, the expansion has been substantially complete for almost two years. Which yes, I get the red sea deal is an issue here. However interest seems to still be minimalistic at best, aside from the stop and drop Hapag does at Saint John, then Halifax, before going to Montreal.
As for the trajectory of Halifax, what exactly is that? Unless something has changed recently, I think CN is still only moving one dedicated intermodal train pair per day out of there. I think in comparison they are still running 2 mixed freight train pairs between Montreal and Moncton as well as the few trains of potash for SJ per week. Hardly anything groundbreaking.
Montreal still offers big advantages over SJ or Halifax since its an inland port, and I believe its similar in size to SJ. At least with the case of CPKC, they don't have the US Customs road block. The other big advantage is containers don't have to be interchanged with a Class 3. And at this point its safe to say that CSX, CPKC, or CN will never be getting trackage rights, just haulage. At this point, I think SJ could handle a niche role of accommodating high priority and time sensitive traffic, which I believe is what some of the current traffic is.
I get that the current intermodal market is a mess with the global issues. However, at this point they should have had some more bites aside from Hapag (And I think CMA if they still call there). But they haven't. And they have been at it for 4-5 years.