Amtrak: Operating Deficit, Government Operation, etc.

[gokeefe]

For the time being it would seem prudent to allow some of the previous reform efforts to work their way through.

My theory on timing is that Amtrak is unsaleable until the Gateway Tunnel and Portal Bridge are complete.

After that I would not be in the least bit surprised to see consideration of a sale.

[Tadman]

... and the fact that Amtrak is close to ending operating deficits (which is possible only with increased commuter and state contributions).

Right, but that only means one entity gives less while another gives more. I don't see this as being a real win because it doesn't really mean passenger trains are more fiscally sound. One gov't loses less money, one loses more. As we've seen in places like Illinois, which is doing their hardest to imitate Venezuela, Blago's passenger train promises were mostly vote grabs. The free/cheap senior rides are gone, the higher-speed is essentially gone, what's left?

And it does nothing to help the organizational malaise endemic to large government organizations, because there is no incentive to do such. Remember when IP failed on the Hoosier route? Amtrak brought back the full dome for a few weeks just to make it look like they cared, because IP had one. Once the incentive to care was gone, it was back to a few horizon cars.

[BandA]

why would you want to sell the NEC? That would be insane. MAYBE outsource operations to one of the Japanese JR railroads...

On these state-supported routes, the states should have some sort of option to pick an operator other than Amtrak and the host railroad would be forced to accept them on the same terms as Amtrak. This would have to be carefully implemented as there are some operators that will cut corners on safety or reliability...Oh wait, Amtrak has safety issues too.

[west point]

Speculation - We want to bid on operating the NEC. Any long term failures
1. If a long time failure of track due to draw bridges
2. Failure of North river tunnel bore(s)
3. any B&P failure
4. any CAT failure
5. 25 Hz system failure
6. Weather related suspensions
Either make us whole or allow exit with damages
7. No closing of tracks for planned work during day
8. Agreed rate of getting back log deferred maintenance complete or severe penalties for non compliance

[gokeefe]

Right, but that only means one entity gives less while another gives more. I don't see this as being a real win because it doesn't really mean passenger trains are more fiscally sound. One gov't loses less money, one loses more.

That's true. On the other hand the states do a far better job of developing routes and additional service. Amtrak's record from the 70s and 80s with short distance routes is terrible. Virginia has even managed to get their operations near self-sufficiency.

[David Benton]

And the States will spend money in state if they can. More acceptable to their constituents than sending money to Washington , to be spent at Amtrak HQ there.

[gokeefe]

Also the Carolinian is another example of very successful state supported service.

[Jeff Smith]

Although also somewhat of a trip report, it appears the writer's main point is the money; appropriately enough the article appears on: Bloomberg.com

The Amtrak That Works, and the Amtrak That Doesn’t

Its long-distance trains are expensive anachronisms that are dragging down the more successful parts of the system. But Congress can’t bear to give them up.
...
(see chart in article)
Yes, that’s right: The California Zephyr, with one eastbound train a day and one westbound, lost more money last year than any other service operated by the National Railroad Passenger Corp., aka Amtrak. On a per-passenger-mile basis, it wasn’t so bad (the three-times-a-week Sunset Limited was the worst), but still, the operating losses from the California Zephyr, Southwest Chief and Empire Builder together nearly equaled Amtrak’s total fiscal 2018 operating loss of $170.6 million. Since the start of fiscal 2019 in October, the California Zephyr alone has lost $40.9 million, even as Amtrak’s operating loss has dwindled to $50.9 million and is projected to approach zero for the full fiscal year.
...
This is possible because Amtrak also operates on shorter routes with much more frequent services that carry many more passengers and in some cases even turn big operating profits:
(see chart in article)

[gokeefe]

I'm impressed that the author appears to have correctly understood Amtrak's political calculus and sees abdication to this fate as perfectly natural.

[Suburban Station]

Right, but that only means one entity gives less while another gives more. I don't see this as being a real win because it doesn't really mean passenger trains are more fiscally sound. One gov't loses less money, one loses more.

That's true. On the other hand the states do a far better job of developing routes and additional service. Amtrak's record from the 70s and 80s with short distance routes is terrible. Virginia has even managed to get their operations near self-sufficiency.

PRIIA was originally intended to have a complementary fund to help states launch and improve service. It was eliminated after one year I beleive. there are clear gaps in the state model (most notably, state successes are largely where routes are wholly within states, such as VA) where service is interstate but on the whole, involving states was a step in the right direction even if it isn't a panacea.

[Tadman]

Right, but that only means one entity gives less while another gives more. I don't see this as being a real win because it doesn't really mean passenger trains are more fiscally sound. One gov't loses less money, one loses more.

That's true. On the other hand the states do a far better job of developing routes and additional service. Amtrak's record from the 70s and 80s with short distance routes is terrible. Virginia has even managed to get their operations near self-sufficiency.

Very fair point. I have long advocated for NICTD to take the Hoosier State and for some Michigan-NICTD coalition to take over the Detroit trains. Trying to be a regular passenger on the Wolverine is an exercise in frustration, and according to a middle manager at Amtrak, the state of Michigan has the same beef.