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  • Amtrak: Operating Deficit, Government Operation, etc.

  • Discussion related to Amtrak also known as the National Railroad Passenger Corp.
Discussion related to Amtrak also known as the National Railroad Passenger Corp.

Moderators: GirlOnTheTrain, mtuandrew, Tadman

 #1511158  by electricron
 
gokeefe wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:00 pm First projected date for breakeven ... "2021" ... From this CBS Report ...
Pundits were saying the same things 20 years ago with the introduction of Acela trains.
Profitability for the entire Amtrak system did not happen then, and it will probably will not happen now.
As soon as profitability can be achieved, some politician from somewhere will either demand another new unprofitable service, or demand Amtrak lower fares - which will make Amtrak unprofitable once again.
 #1511199  by gokeefe
 
That's not the full story ... Those changes alone would not be sufficient to cover the long distance deficit. The new high speed trainsets combined with several other initiatives appear to have helped Amtrak turn the corner.
 #1511425  by Gilbert B Norman
 
I must raise the question: do the "powers that be" want Amtrak deficits eliminated?

Furthermore, as Amtrak directs itself towards the services providing meaningful public benefit (LD advocates disagree, but that means corridors) the effect of the record appropriations will come to bear adversely upon Net Income (Loss).

Reviewing the Audited Financial Statements and the integral Notes thereto, you'll find that the Appropriation ($1.9 FY 19 and likely thereabouts for 20) is credited as received to a Paid In Capital account. This is largely offset by a Retained Earnings Deficit (not the way it should be, but the product of a government agency keeping its books as if it were a private sector Corporation). Since the Appropriation supports in large part, infrastructure improvements to the Corridor which are charged to a Capital account such as Property, Plant, and Equipment, such amounts will be charged to expense, i.e. Depreciation, over future accounting periods representing the useful life of such. Those amounts expended to support the LD's and the HQ bureaucracy are of course Expense in the current period.

But the point I make is that as higher Depreciation Expense is charged, it will be more difficult to achieve Net Income under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

Now returning to the statement with which I opened this post; do they WANT deficits to be eliminated. Much as that is the objective of any for profit business entity, Amtrak is confronted with a Congress looking for "facetime" and wondering " if you're making money, why are you coming to us looking for a handout?"
 #1511432  by David Benton
 
You would hope congress have people advising them of the difference between capital and operating requirements. And Amtrak is different form normal businesses in that it is not seeking a return on capital .
 #1511438  by gokeefe
 
Gilbert B Norman wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:58 pmNow returning to the statement with which I opened this post; do they WANT deficits to be eliminated. Much as that is the objective of any for profit business entity, Amtrak is confronted with a Congress looking for "facetime" and wondering " if you're making money, why are you coming to us looking for a handout?"
I found myself pondering much the same this afternoon as I was making my way through the latter chapters of "The Wreck of the Penn Central" by Daughen and Binzen.

I think the answer will be some kind of increased contribution by Amtrak to capital project support with a consequent federal reduction.

I'm wondering if it can hurt them in some way and the answer becomes (yet again) the infamous 218+51+1. In short it's impossible to fundamentally modify Amtrak without control of at least two branches of government or at least consent.

What could really be the big "sea change" is the South or Southeast saying "time to finance SEHSR" using the same RRIF program. If the revenues can cover the financing then, "Why not?"
 #1511477  by mtuandrew
 
gokeefe wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:33 pm On a different note one wonders if the "shareholders" of Amtrak will suddenly feel entitled to a dividend.
And in this case, that could either be the common shareholders and landlords suing the preferred for a share of those profits, or the preferred shareholder looking to spin off parts of the enterprise. I see Virgin sniffing around certain edges for instance, and depending on the government in charge, Amtrak could turn unrecognizably into a shell corporation subcontracting out all of its operations to states and private companies.
 #1511519  by John_Perkowski
 
To the best of my knowledge, all stock of the National Railroad Passenger Corporation is held by the successor corporations to the railroads in place on May 1, 1971.
 #1511839  by Tadman
 
I thought the common stock went to PC, BN, and two other legacy roads while the preferred stock went to the US Gov't? Usually preferred stockholders are given dividends first, so for the freights to get a dividend, Uncle Same would have to get one as well.

From wikipedia:
The Rail Passenger Service Act of 1970, which established Amtrak, specifically states that, "The Corporation will not be an agency or establishment of the United States Government".[166] Then common stock was issued in 1971 to railroads that contributed capital and equipment; these shares convey almost no benefits,[167] but their current holders[168] declined a 2002 buy-out offer by Amtrak. There are currently 109,396,994 shares of preferred stock, at a par value of $100 per share, all held by the US government. There are currently 9,385,694 shares of common stock, with a par value of $10 per share, held by four other railroad companies: APU (formerly Penn Central) 53%, BNSF (35%), Canadian Pacific (7%), and Canadian National (5%).
And there's plenty of good reading here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/13-1080
 #1511853  by gokeefe
 
Interesting that implied capitalization of Amtrak is $10,939,699,400 (preferred capitalization) + $93,856,940 (common capitalization) = $11,033,556,340.

$11B would be a bargain basement price for everything that Amtrak owns. In order to achieve that price based on 16:1 P/E Amtrak would have to earn net income of $689,597,271.

A market analysis of Amtrak would term their situation as underperforming earnings relative to capital value. Setting aside the obvious of losing money on operations I find it interesting that Amtrak has true fundamental value that is likely significantly higher than par.
 #1512261  by BandA
 
I'm surprised that more preferred shares aren't issued to the Feds for every capital infusion.
I'm repeating myself, but it becomes much more perilous to a company when they achieve (or nearly achieve) break even or a small profit. A company that is losing a ton of money, they point at the growth rate of sales, or obscure things taking restructuring charges. A company breaking even they suddenly notice that it is under performing on the capital, so a private enterprise tries to pay out the capital or some other scheme...
 #1512272  by rcthompson04
 
gokeefe wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:25 pm Interesting that implied capitalization of Amtrak is $10,939,699,400 (preferred capitalization) + $93,856,940 (common capitalization) = $11,033,556,340.

$11B would be a bargain basement price for everything that Amtrak owns. In order to achieve that price based on 16:1 P/E Amtrak would have to earn net income of $689,597,271.

A market analysis of Amtrak would term their situation as underperforming earnings relative to capital value. Setting aside the obvious of losing money on operations I find it interesting that Amtrak has true fundamental value that is likely significantly higher than par.
The issue is whether Amtrak's stock would actually trade anywhere near those numbers due to the deferred maintenance.
 #1512284  by mtuandrew
 
$11b for a few hundred miles of 125/150 mph railroad plus a few hundred miles of 110 mph railroad in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New York, a power distribution grid including its own hydropower system at Safe Harbor, Bear and Wilmington, all the coach yards, all the stations (PSNY, South Station, 30th Street, Washington Union, Chicago Union, and Los Angeles Union would be in the many billions of dollars together) and all the equipment either delivered or contracted for? That’s a tenth of its worth, if not lower, and that doesn’t even cover the existing trackage rights that likely would fall to a corporate successor or the income from tenants like NS, Conrail, P&W and the multiple commuter lines.
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