Greg Moore wrote:Looking at the FY2016 ridership numbers, looking at the bi-level discussion, looking at the Quad Cities discussion and other things really makes me wonder:
How much ridership is Amtrak really leaving on the table? My guess is, quite a lot.
So one question I have is, does Amtrak have any decent projections on what they could do with an expanded fleet?
The total US population was 203,000,000 in 1970. Today it is 325,000,000. That's a 50% increase while Amtrak has been in business. We aren't close to keeping up.
Never heard of a system-wide estimate for "maximum Amtrak". Guessing that no one dares to make such a calculation.
From the PRIIA studies, we have estimates that the Cardinal and the Sunset Ltd would about double ridership by going daily, for well over 200,000 more Amtrak riders right there.
Add a few no-brainers like a second train NYC-ATL, a second train NYC-ALB-BUF-CLE-TOL-CHI, and a restored route NYC-Philly-PGH-CLE-TOL-CHI. Provide one more transcontinental train, say the North Shore Hiawatha (I prefer to call it the Sacajawea). Another million.
Look at the big Stimulus routes:
St Louis-CHI was hauling more than 600,000 or so pax before about a Billion in trackwork and other upgrades disrupted the schedules. Next year the work should be finished, and the trip will be "about an hour" faster. When the new bi-levels arrive, each coach will carry about 30% more riders. So 600,000 should grow to 780,000 a year. At least one more, and maybe 3 more frequencies will be added to the current 4 (+ the Texas Eagle). Another frequency suggests another 200,000 pax. Adding 3 frequencies puts the route at roughly 1.3 million riders fairly soon.
Detroit-CHI will also run faster starting next year, and without adding frequencies should add another 200,000 riders or more.
Seattle-Portland ridership on the Cascades was 800,000 or so before construction projects ruined the on-time performance and drove down ridership to barely 600,000 now. The work ends next year with OTP set to go from 73% to 88%, with about 10 minutes shaved from the schedule, and with 2 more Cascades runs added to the present 4 (+ Coastal Starlight). The annual count should grow by 300,000 or more.
The Piedmonts running Charlotte-Raleigh will shave at least half an hour off the schedules and add one more (or is it 2 more?) frequencies. Look for another 100,000 or more riders here.
Let's go back to the Midwest and build 110-mph segments St Paul-CHI, Cincinnati/Louisville-Indianapolis-CHI, and PGH-CLE-TOL-CHI. Bring 79 mph top speeds to Lincoln-Omaha-Des Moines-Iowa City-Quad Cities-CHI and Memphis-Carbondale-Champaign-CHI.
Go back to the Cascades route to cut more time from the Seattle-Portland trunk, add more frequencies, extend some upgrades north toward Vancouver, B.C., and south to Eugene, Oregon, and begin a Spokane-Pasco-Seattle corridor service.
Build the planned shortcut Richmond-Petersburg-Raleigh to run 6 corridor trains a day.
Details. Details.
The big picture, if Wick Moorman gets 2 minutes with the new boss, ask for $20 Billion for new equipment and $50 Billion for upgrading corridors. The goal: Double Amtrak's ridership -- a 100% increase -- within 10 years.