Brightline (All Aboard Florida) Orlando - Miami FL FEC fka Virgin Rail

[Gilbert B Norman]

From my favorite news source for coverage of AAF affairs:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/all-a ... csaNn4zhAP" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Fair Use:

...A big yellow train at the platform, a smattering of celebratory statements and Brightline’s inaugural run set off Friday morning, dignitaries aboard, for a high-speed ride down the rails to Fort Lauderdale and back.

Some politicos acknowledged disappointment the company failed to finish construction of whatever’s required for horn-free running but no protesters materialized. Mayor Jeri Muoio’s absence was the most visible expression of city annoyance at the rail line’s last-minute revelation it would continue blasting horns through intersections for at least a few more months before completing its Quiet Zone work.

Nonetheless the mood was laudatory.

“When you do something this bold, this big, you can’t expect everything to be perfect,” City Commissioner Paula Ryan told the gathering of officials at the launch. “This is going to change the feel of the city for 100 years

OK, I concede; I never dreamed this day would come, but let's be honest, volks; what we have here is a Disneyland ride that hasn't a prayer of providing needed transportation through the Gold Coast region.

[chrsjrcj]

I too was on the first run, round trip. Bright Red both ways. Light load in the Smart coaches, but it looked like the Select coach was sold out. I clocked us 35 minutes from end to end both ways.

I didn’t see an advantage to Select for such a smart trip, but maybe when Miami or Orlando happens it will be worth it.

The security check point is not invasive at all, and does not compare to entering a sporting event or concert. You simply walk through the waist high posts. No taking anything out of your pockets. If you’re not carrying a bag, you’d probably wouldn’t even notice you went through it.

[Gilbert B Norman]

Here's the latest:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/new-b ... AJiOFy0H9N" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Interesting to learn they will handle dogs. What would Lucky (1992-03) my Newfoundland thought. He'd expect a Select Class seat all to himself, and would otherwise "hold court" for any little kids aboard.

[Noel Weaver]

Well, I DID IT. My ride today (Saturday their first day) was comfortable, pleasant, very fast and smooooth. The cars are probably the best coaches anywhere in the US today. I sat right over the wheels both north and south and you could hear us going over various switches but there was no lurching or slam bang which is somewhat common on other rail lines today. We left Fort Lauderdale on time at 9:25 AM and after passing Sunrise interlocking maybe a mile north quickly got our speed up to 79 MPH where it stayed for just about the entire trip. The second track is all finished and in service. Today the FEC is all double track between West Palm Beach and Miami except for a short stretch between Ojus South and North Miami which is a work in progress. I was told by somebody on the train that they have a huge number of workers in Miami working on the new station there, it is a big job. Select was pretty crowded but smart had plenty of room, I rode smart north and select south, very comfortable both ways. Select provides for various items of snacks and drinks. The whole operation is cashless with no money handled even for snacks in the stations. I am not sure that is a good way to do it but it is what it is. I have heard that rail trains are already bringing rail down for the new second track north from West Palm. I think they are going to try very hard to get to Orlando as soon as they possibly can but my guess is three years, hopefully in 2021. It is no Disney affair but serious business even if it is just Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. It gives them a chance to work out the bugs in the system and they are going to have bugs, make no doubt about that. Miami will be a plus especially if Tri-Rail does not get to Miami Central for a while. A friend with the FECRS handled the reservations for me and when I got to the Fort Lauderdale station my tickets were waiting for me. The ticketing is at ground level, you go up an escalator or elevator to the upper level which has security which is no big deal, snack facilities, waiting lounges which are beautiful and scanners which you use with you ticket to get by them. This is the first time I used one on anything other than a rapid transit situation but it worked OK without any hitches and they have help everywhere if you need it. When the train is ready for boarding they make an announcement and boarding is orderly at all times with all seats assigned in advanced and printed right on your ticket, just like the railroads did many, many years ago. Boarding calls occur about 10 or 15 minutes before departure time and they leave on time. Large baggage items have to be checked but they apparently have some sort of accomodation for such stuff. I am using a walker today and on the NB trip I was in a handicap seat and the walker was right there with me, in fact the seat was facing backwards so I simply set up my walker and used the seat on that, I was reasonably comfortable with that and it worked well. Select cars have 2 and 1 seating and are very comfortable. To recline it works like most trains in Europe with the cushion sliding back and forth and locking in postion, It works in Europe and it works well here too. I had a good lunch at O'Shea's Irish Pub which is a ten minute walk from the station, this worked well too. The boarding lounge at both West Palm and Fort Lauderdale is a great setting to watch a freight train pass by if you are lucky enough to encounter one. Soon after I arrived at West Palm train 109 which is a southbound mixed consist and he had a long train. I saw the top of every car in it. Boarding is at car level and is easy and very safe. All on here I urge you to ride this train while it is both new and not crowded, you will be glad you did. Transfer between Tri-Rail is possible at both Fort Lauderdale and West Palm. At Fort Lauderdale the no. 22 bus stops right at the Tri-Rail station and goes to the central terminal which is only a couple of blocks from Brightline. At West Palm the no. 1 bus leaves from the Tri-Rail station at fairly frequent intervals and goes within a 15 minute walk of Brightline. Personally I would prefer the transfer arrangement at Fort Lauderdale as it requires less walking and fewer streets to cross.
I guess this about says it all. GBN, I can't urge you enough to do this when you are in these parts later this month. I might be convinced to join you depending on how my doctor's appointments go between now and then. It might make a believer of you.
Noel Weaver

[D.Carleton]

As mentioned by Mr. Weaver, here is 109 passing WPB after his arrival.
DSCN1596 by D.Carleton, on Flickr
Wish I had known you went to O'Sheas. I went to Dorrian's for "supper" after a long night and went to bed.

[Bob Roberts]

I know its mostly just opening day bluster but I certainly found these comments from the co-founder of Fortress to be interesting:

And even as South Florida service gets underway Saturday, officials are exploring other parts of the country, such as Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, said to Wes Edens, co-founder of Fortress Investment Group, Brightline's parent company.
...
Atlanta-Charlotte, Houston-Dallas and Houston-Austin could be good fits for the Miami-to-Orlando model being developed in South Florida, he said.

https://amp.tcpalm.com/amp/1017612001" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Arlington]

OK, I concede; I never dreamed this day would come, but let's be honest, volks; what we have here is a Disneyland ride that hasn't a prayer of providing needed transportation through the Gold Coast region.

Could you please provide us with concrete criteria against which to evaluate your statements on whether they represent a fair interpretation of Brightline results?

Profit? My understanding is that Disney's rides produce outsized profits for the company. Can a Disneyland ride be a success? Actually maybe it is only Disney's ticket booths that are net revenue positive and the rest of the park operates at a loss? What if Brightline's biggest payback is it's real estate? Is that like Disney decideng to close the rides and just put up more ticket booths, or will you admit synergies between the parts of the park?

"Needed transportation" How do we know when transportation is needed? how many people must need a thing before it is judged needed? How many must use a thing before judging that it is providing a needed thing?Can you propose and defend a threshold intracity market share that would qualify as "needed" How does the fact that Brightline is privately funded effect where it's "convenience and necessity" (an old regulatory term) get measured?


Is "never went bankrupt" the test? If so, near all common carriers in the US, while highly sustainable, would all be judged failures. Is the Las Vegas Monorail a success (operating profitably/sustainably after several bankruptcies--just like all US airlines do and most freight railroads. Should sustainable ops or sustainable profits be our test?

What makes "The Gold Coast Region" an appropriate statement of the market? Why not just downtown to downtown, or maybe identify specfic zip codes or counties whose impact you'll measure in?

I would like to judge the accuracy of predictions bybsome objective measure, and not just how you feel about them after the fact.

[Noel Weaver]

I plan to ride again tomorrow (Monday). Not sure exactly what trains yet. No O'Shea's tomorrow though.
Noel Weaver

[Noel Weaver]

By the way when you are in West Palm Beach take a look at the stones in the walkway at the entrance. The one for the Florida East Coast Railway Society is probably a first in the industry.
Noel Weaver

[Gilbert B Norman]

Mr. Arlington, allow me an attempt to address your points.

By a Disneyland Ride, I was drawing an analogy in which someone takes a ride for no reason beyond a joyride. Now to what extent the monorails and the other trains at the Disney theme parks are profitable as a sole operation is difficult to measure. But they had better be, as my long position in DIS has essentially been "flat" for the past three years, and of course an S&P "underperform". Possibly when AAF opens to Miami, there will be business clientele that will find the "Super Shuttle" convenient, but, and this is a guess on my part, that there will not be enough of such for even a farebox recovery.

The real estate, such as Miami Central hardly hangs on the success or failure of AAF.

Now so far as "finishing the job" to Orlando, including building 40 miles of track supported solely by passenger trains, I think they are finding that funds with which to complete the project harder to come by than they expected. When AAF was told by a bond rating service that an issue representing one third of the cost to complete the project is "not investment grade", how say the other two thirds?

All told, I contend that at this time, AAF could fold and get out fairly clean. As I've noted the double tracking through the Gold Coast is part of the bet that the Ports such as Miami to be efficiently served need such, or otherwise needed with or without AAF. The passenger equipment hopefully will have a ready market, and somehow not "hung up" as have been the Wisconsin Talgos, when an immediate use for them has now developed.

But again, I concede that AAF has come further than I ever dreamed it would. I've been mistaken so far, and who's to say my luck will change?

[Noel Weaver]

Mr. Arlington, allow me an attempt to address

But again, I concede that AAF has come further than I ever dreamed it would. I've been mistaken so far, and who's to say my luck will change?

If you consider yourself lucky if this fails you are probably in a one per cent bracket among railroad enthusiasts and for that I have to say shame. After riding it Saturday and planning to again tomorrow I say GO GO GO. I sure hope your so called luck falls apart here. When you are in these parts later this month you really need to see for yourself what they have already accomplished just maybe you will have positive thoughts for a change.
Noel Weaver

[gokeefe]

But again, I concede that AAF has come further than I ever dreamed it would. I've been mistaken so far, and who's to say my luck will change?

Mr. Norman,

I'm curious what you would consider to be the "point of no return" for Brightline's success. Any ideas?

[Arlington]

curious what you would consider to be the "point of no return" for Brightline's success. Any ideas?

I'd be ok to see a middle grey area, so long as there was a specifically stated "below which Brighghtline is a clear failure" and "above which is a clear success"

My definition of "clear failure" would require *both* bankruptcy and a cessation of intercity passenger operations by any carrier on the FEC.

My middle ground of "not failure and not success" would be bankruptcy OR cessation but not BOTH. Eg:
- goes bankrupt but returns to operations (like Las Vegas Monorail and most airlines) OR
- gets turned over to the state for $1 and the trainsets continue operating (Kind of like Auto Train or what Gannet would have done with USA Today had it not been a clear success), and turns out to still have produced at least a breakeven for Fortress in real estate and FEC ops.
Yes, by my definition, Fortress & the Brightline Concept have succeeded, even if Tri-Rail eventually takes over, all the goals of the business plan will have been meet: double-tracking, real-estate revival, transit-oriented development, ongoing passenger ops.

My definition of clear success would be:
- Runs at an operating profit, retain
- produces sufficient real estate upside (sooner and bigger) for its station-area capital costs to be folded into the site-redevelopment costs of the real estate
- produces sufficient rail upside for its double-track costs to be paid back by its operating upside for FEC
- strong enough financial performance MIA-FLL-WPB to lead them to expand to Cocoa Beach, JAX, or Orlando, even if those later expansions prove unsustainable.

By my tests, failure is unlikely (Hedge fund people spotted a no-lose opportunity:
a real estate and rail arbitrage that happened to result in an ongoing passenger operation

Similarly, I'd have judged the AutoTrain a private success, or just barely success, that was unable to sustain an accident or any expansion, but could have gone on at "steady state" if management hadn't felt the need to expand nor CSX derailed. I'd judge Brightline a success just for MIA-FLL-WBP, which might fail later by accident or ill-planned expansion (I'm not going to judge it a failure if it works MIA-FLL-WPB but later fails on expansion).

My assessment is that Brightline will be a win when tenants are found for, say, 50% of the station development--pretty close to a "no-lose" proposition (at least on the Gold Coast).

I view it as kind of like Gannett's no-lose bet on USA Today: they invested heavily in both operations (reporters & distribution) and in production (a national network of 4-color printing presses). Even if the paper itself hadn't made standalone money (it did), Gannett knew it was already a win to have the satellite & color-printing technology either pay back as a USA Today startup cost, or to simply recharacterise it as an investment in local Gannet newspapers and let them become 4-color faster than they would've otherwise. If USA Today would've folded and its name retired, Gannet had essentially locked in a breakeven or a small win on all the other parts. It was a no-lose choice between "breakeven" and "big win"...which is practically the textbook definition of bets hedge funds like to make.

[Gilbert B Norman]

Mr. Arlington, overall I think you have presented a fair and reasonable evaluation of what would constitute a "success" and the levels of "partial success".

If AAF is able to build enough public acceptance from a MIA-WPB operation i.e. after the joyriders (analogous to a Disneyland ride) have moved on, that the State is prepared to appropriate public funding such as they do for both Tri and Sun rails, then such would move the project into the "partial success" category, but I would not be compelled to eat my hat in a manner that Eisenhower's Secretary of Labor did during 1959 when certain employment goals were not met.

The big question is to what extent the FECI real estate holdings, such as Miami Central, benefit from AAF. In short, will Miami Central have whatever occupancy level the landlords deem sufficient with or without AAF. Will the Henry Flagler model of build the railroad and the people will come or the Field of Dreams model of if we will build it, they will come.

Now what will be interesting (off the rails) will be if Miami Central will revitalize the Overtown community. Such is to the immediate West of Miami Central and it is "not recommended" to be on the streets after dark. AAF has taken a step in that direction by locating their offices within that community. Will respectable law firms locate there or will the Bail Bondsmen displaced by Miami Central simply locate there along with the lawyers that feed them? The "flip side" is will Overtown scare potential tenants - particularly residential tenants - away?

[D.Carleton]

IMG_0256rr by D.Carleton, on Flickr
Mr. Weaver's train after "turning" at the RRF and prior to its southbound departure. I've been attached to this project for over a year-and-a-half and it still doesn't get old.

To that end, as I was snapping the above photo a young boy in the Smart lounge pressed his face against the window as he studied my train. Running through my mind, "This is for you kid. Don't screw it up."