Virgin Rail (Brightline) IPO, Bonds, Success, Branding

This is a forum for all operations, both current and planned, of Virgin Rail USA formerly known as Brightline, and Virgin Worldwide Rail operations, past and present.
Websites: Current Brightline
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Jadebenn
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Virgin Rail (Brightline) IPO, Bonds, Success, Branding

Post by Jadebenn » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:56 am

RIP Brightline branding, we hardly knew ye. Thanks to a deal with the Virgin group, the company will be renamed Virgin Trains USA. And no, this is not a poorly-timed April Fool's joke.
Renaming to Virgin Trains USA will begin this month and transition to Virgin Trains USA branding in 2019.

However, Brightline will still be managed and operated by Brightline’s executive team and affiliates of Fortress Investment Group.
As someone who's vaguely aware of the reputation of the other Virgin Trains company, I hope the name is the only thing Fortress plans to import.

bostontrainguy
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by bostontrainguy » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:15 pm

Wow, these guys move quick!

DutchRailnut
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Re: Brightline Expansion Outside of Florida

Post by DutchRailnut » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:08 pm

If Conductors are in charge, why are they promoted to be Engineer???

Retired Triebfahrzeugführer. I am not a moderator.

Bonevalleyrailfan
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Bonevalleyrailfan » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:23 pm

Where to begin tonight. Brightline now Virgin Trains USA will issue an IPO. Here is the Miami Herald story

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/busine ... 06725.html

The SEC filing is here

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 8x4_s1.htm

It appears they will build out Orlando and Tampa concurrently. It is a long document so I haven't gone through it all. If Mr. Norman is around I would love to hear your thoughts on all of this.

Gilbert B Norman
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Gilbert B Norman » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:32 pm

Well, an SEC Form S-1 - Prospectus - always contains "gems" within such, including the risks!!

A Prospectus definitely expects the filer to "bare the soul".

Worth a read.

bostontrainguy
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by bostontrainguy » Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:51 am

Don't have to buy them out. From what I have read Virgin just got a piece of Brightline (less than 50%) but the deal made them the new name and image. The same will happen with TCR.

bostontrainguy
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by bostontrainguy » Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:03 am

So who here is going to buy this stock? I own CSX, NSC and UNP and they are doing okay. But my only experience with a new rail IPO was the original Auto-Train and it was a total loss as you all know.

Kind of reluctant to get involved again even though this is a most interesting opportunity. Whatever the case I look forward to reading the prospectus.

Arlington
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:11 am

I'm tempted by the IPO, the more the states and Feds let the gas tax stagnate, the bigger the more attractive passenget rail will be as a way to accommodate medium haul travel.
"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn

s4ny
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Location: Birdsall, NY

Re: Virgin Rail née Brightline/AAF Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by s4ny » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:46 am

Virgin Trains is scheduled for an initial public offering (IPO) in 2019.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... x8_s1a.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What if the IPO flops?

bostontrainguy
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Re: Virgin Rail née Brightline/AAF Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by bostontrainguy » Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:39 pm

I don't know. I have stock in CSX, NS and UNP. Even had PWX and BNI but Warren gave me my money back. I had stock in KCS back when they were piecing it all together and did well. The KCS situation was like having insider information because I felt the average investor and analyst had no idea what was going on.

But the real hurt was when the original Auto-Train went belly up and I lost everything. This is a different animal but passenger rail seems like a risky situation. Are people going to throw their investment dollars at this when there are so many better tried-and-true options out there? I have my doubts. Hopefully we will all be surprised maybe?

Jeff Smith
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Re: Virgin Rail - Brightline IPO & Rebranding

Post by Jeff Smith » Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:33 pm

TampaBay.com: Virgin Trains USA announces initial public offering of up to $619 million to support Brightline expansion
Virgin Trains USA, the Sir Richard Branson-backed company that has partnered with Florida's Brightline passenger train, on Wednesday announced an initial public offering of stock to raise up to $619 million.

Altogether, Virgin Trains is offering to sell more than 32.5 million shares of stock at $17 to $19 per share. The shares will be listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker symbol VTUS.

Brightline, which is soon expected to take on the Virgin Trains name, currently runs a passenger train between Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, with plans to expand north to Orlando at an estimated cost of $1.9 billion. It also has proposed a $1.7 billion link from Orlando to Tampa, with a possible stop near Disney's theme parks, and is negotiating with the Florida Department of Transportation and the Central Florida Expressway Authority for right of way along or in the medians of Interstate 4 and State Road 417.
...
Next stop, Willoughby
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bostontrainguy
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Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Virgin Rail - Brightline IPO & Rebranding

Post by bostontrainguy » Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:04 pm

Wonder if they are going to go with a similar paint scheme? I don't really care for the Brightline "dripping nose" look.
virgin.jpg
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s4ny
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Re: Virgin Rail née Brightline/AAF Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by s4ny » Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:55 pm

I have participated in thousands of IPOs in the last 21 years. I have never seen a business with less probability of success.

bostontrainguy
Posts: 1600
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Virgin Rail née Brightline/AAF Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by bostontrainguy » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:39 am

I agree. Not touching this thing. Lots of better places to put your money. I am heavy into dividend stocks myself . . . just keep giving me free money!
Last edited by CRail on Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Unnecessary quote removed.

Arlington
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Re: Virgin Rail née Brightline/AAF Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:16 am

s4ny wrote:I have participated in thousands of IPOs in the last 21 years. I have never seen a business with less probability of success.
Your analysis was surely voluminous. Could you summarize it here?
I'd say a lot of analysts have gotten stuff like this wrong.

Lots of analysts said there was no room for JetBlue in a consolidating and viciously competitive airline industry. For JetBlue, it turned out that they'd staked out a defensible position in capacity-constrained airports (JFK, BOS, LGB, FLL) in very large markets, and then found some more (LGA, DCA, SJU)

Lots of analysts doubted that Southwest's strategy of competing mainly against cars was sustainable. It lasted them 20 solid years, and "drivers" represented a near-endless reservoir of "competitors' customers" that they could poach without fear of market response (Think the Fla toll roads are going to cut prices to win back market share? Doubtful)

Intra-Florida inter-city is a capacity constrained market.
Intra-Florida is a large market

1M people represents just 3% of the 3-city intracity market
2M (above breakeven) will represent 5% of the 3 city market
4M (where the S-1A says they are headed) is still just 10% of the 3-city volume

You can say things like "90% of people will NEVER consider taking the train"--and be entirely correct--and still VTUS can make a killing in the other 10%.

That part is playing out to plan. Why would you expect Orlando-Tampa to be different?
"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn

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