The End of Cheap Oil

[emd_SD_60]

First off, take ANYTHING Rolling Stone says with two grains of salt (and a little pepper for good measure). They slant so far to the left it's amazing that the magazine doesn't fall out of the rack. If Kerry had won the election, guaranteed that the outlook for the future would be bright and rosy, energy included.

Agreed. That magazine has gotten more liberal as the years moved on...I can't believe I used to like that crappy magazine. I haven't bought that crap in about 4 years...

Anyway back to the topic, maybe we could start having locomotives run on propane again? Or maybe even on biodiesel.

[UPRR engineer]

If you would have read the webpages more closely, all the other energy ideas use too much energy from the system to produce another source of power. Every single thing we do takes energy out of the system, everything going on here in america has something to do with oil, read those web pages again. If you use more energy than you produce, it doesnt work. Look at the webpages again. Im not trying to convince any of you guys, study up on it and youll learn the fact yourself, or not. This stuff isnt front page news because it would scare the crap out of all of us, but the time is coming where it will be front page news here in the near future. Theres nothing we can do to replace oil, that time has passed us already, we are on the top now if we havent already started to slide down the other side of the bell curve.

[steam371]

I did read the articles closely, and like I mentioned before paranoia. There are always options, just not easier ones. I think Iceland's idea's, SAFE nuclear power, and even aspects of geothermal power to genereate electricity are things we should look at. We have lots of technology and manpower in this world, and we should start using it. After reading lifeafterthecrash.net I kinda wonder if the author has stocks in Colt, Ruger and such or if he has survival retreats for sale in Wyoming. Yes the end of oil is coming, but there are options. Am I sounding idealistic? Probably but its better than being totaly doom and gloom about it.

[Brad Smith]

I agree with steam371. Contrary to an earlier statement, this is exactly like the Y2K scare. There were whole magazines dedicated to predicting the complete collapse of modern society and how you should prepare to live as a survivalist would. The hordes would flee the city when the power went out and the food ran short, etc. To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it's deja-vu all over again.
There are other energy options out there, they just aren't economically cost effective at this point. The higher oil prices rise, the more feasible these options will become and they will be implemented.
I too am not trying to convert those of you who believe the articles, but I think you can cause yourself a lot of anxiety and actual physical symptoms over a theoretical problem that likely will not be as severe as alarmists are predicting and over which you have no say or control.

[UPRR engineer]

from http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

A March 2005 report prepared for the US Department of Energy confirmed dire warnings of the investment banking community. Entitled "The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production," the report observed:

Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved
through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge
oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of
significant economic hardship worldwide.

Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating
crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel
deficit for two decades or longer.

The report went on to say:

The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be
temporary, and past “energy crisis” experience will provide relatively little
guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious
attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a
timely basis.

. . . the world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive
mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be
pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were
gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.

As one commentator recently observed, the reason our leaders are acting like desperados is because we have a desperate situation on our hands.

If you've been wondering why the Bush administration has been spending money, cutting social programs, and starting wars like there's no tomorrow, now you have your answer: as far as they are concerned, there is no tomorrow.

What is particularly disturbing is that, as insane as it may sound, they might be correct in their thinking.
-------------------------------
Is the US Department of Energy an alarmists group? Ahhh no. Im not trying to scare anyone, its a warning and something to think about. If you think about how much we depend on the stuff, every single thing we do ties into oil one way or another, getting to work, purchasing things, everything we do everyday encluding other energy options. Its not practical to use more energy to build something that produces less, we have no other options. The price and energy to get the raw materals, oil, the price and energy used to build and run a plant to make other energy, oil, the price and energy to get to the job, oil, the price and energy used to get the product to the stores, oil. So if you take all the energy used to get and make and ship say a solar panel, or a hydrogen-powered car you lose more than you gained. I havent seen any big changes in how do things yet, and i dont see anyway of getting around not being so dependent on oil, as the price of oil goes up so does the price of making another energy source, i think its too late, every single we do here america is gonna change one way or another, its not gonna be pretty, we'll have to wait and see.
Being aware of it and taking a few small steps (or some big ones) may easy the heart ache you face in the near future. Having some sort of well thought out plan on how your gonna eat and where your gonna live could save you and your family. If nothing happens what have you lost? better safe than sorry, the longer you wait the harder its gonna be. Global oil production and gas prices is going to affect you one way or another, thats reality, like it or not. I too have some hope that something can change our future, but its just hope, i dont have too much faith in letting someone else think of a way to save me. Does that change your mind any?

If i came to work tomarrow and saw the railroads where buying steam engines to run on coal and wood again, stocked up on parts for them, had a plan to mine coal and cut timber the hard way like the old days, incouraged employees to move closer to work so they could walk or ride a bike to work, id be a bit less nervous. Is it gonna happen? i doubt it. Will they try when things get tough? i hope so. Would it change every as i know it? YES

[UPRR engineer]

GE has a locomotive advertisement on there web page if that helps.
Quote from that website:
Ultimately, says Deffeyes, we may just have to resign ourselves to relying more on coal, wind, and nuclear fission for ­electricity and switching to high-efficiency diesel and hybrid automobiles in order to ration our remaining oil reserves for as long as possible. Abundant energy from fossil fuels was a one-time gift, Deffeyes concludes, that lifted humanity up from subsistence agriculture and has led to a future based on renewable resources.

Think this is the reason for the GE coal commercials? If companies like GE are listen to the doom's day people.....


http://www.technologyreview.com/article ... ew_oil.asp

[UPRR engineer]

Anyone on here watch the made for TV show Oil Storm on FX lastnight besides me? It hit on a few key points but it wasnt really that good sence it was very G rated. They left out alot of the stuff that "could" happen. Kept showing the price of gas and how everything else we do goes up along with it. I think they are gonna show it a couple more times this week at night if anyone is interested in watching it.

[Jtgshu]

Gotta wonder if CSX is gonna "test" C and O 614 like they did in the mid 80's for a "modern" steam engine.....

THAT would be cool! hahaha

[UPRR engineer]

I cant wait for the day where someone, GE, UP, BN, CSX, Bush, someone just flat out says, look this is a real and serous problem and heres what we are gonna try to do about it. My Rolling Stone artical didnt go over well with everyone, you guys know that they didnt write it, someone else did, they just published it. Reading about the price of oil in the US weekly paper with them not telling you what we are looking at is sad. And the reason for that kinda news is the general public doesnt know how to deal with it or they dont wanna hear about it. Next time you city living guys go in the book store ask them to show you the end of oil books and pick one up and read what the petroleum geologist have to say about it (the guys who work for the oil companies). You wont feel all warm and fuzzy afterwards but its something we are gonna deal with. If you dont want to take my word at least pick up a book.

I feel like asking the UP myself what the plan is. Im more than sure they know something, just havent figured out who to ask yet. Like the rest of you guys i dont know if i want to hear what they have to say, im a little scared to find out.

[UPRR engineer]

http://a1204.g.akamai.net/7/1204/1401/0 ... 511833.jpg



Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage

FROM THE PUBLISHER
In 1956, geophysicist M. King Hubbert -- then working at the Shell research lab in Houston -- predicted that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized and occasionally ridiculed by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970. The hundred-year period during which most of the world's oil was discovered became known as Hubbert's peak -- a span of time almost comically shorter than the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form.
Using the same methods that Hubbert used to make his stunningly accurate prediction, Kenneth Deffeyes finds that world oil production will peak within five years and that there isn't anything we can do to stop it. New exploration and production technologies can't save us, and plans to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and other areas to drilling offer no more than a small and soon-to-be-forgotten blip on the production curve. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot -- and almost certainly will not -- be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe of shortages, soaring prices, and global economic, agricultural, and possibly political disturbance.

None of this is news to most specialists and many within the petroleum industry, but politicians, the media, and the public at large aren't hearing about it. Thanks to this book, they soon will. Thoroughly accessible, surprisingly charming, and filled with entertaining anecdotes, it demonstrates why a worldwide energy crisis is just around the corner. And, though the near-term scenario is ugly, Deffeyes tells us what we can do to thrive after Hubbert's peak has passed.

[UPRR engineer]

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage

FROM THE PUBLISHER
In 1956, geophysicist M. King Hubbert -- then working at the Shell research lab in Houston -- predicted that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized and occasionally ridiculed by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970. The hundred-year period during which most of the world's oil was discovered became known as Hubbert's peak -- a span of time almost comically shorter than the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form.
Using the same methods that Hubbert used to make his stunningly accurate prediction, Kenneth Deffeyes finds that world oil production will peak within five years and that there isn't anything we can do to stop it. New exploration and production technologies can't save us, and plans to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and other areas to drilling offer no more than a small and soon-to-be-forgotten blip on the production curve. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot -- and almost certainly will not -- be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe of shortages, soaring prices, and global economic, agricultural, and possibly political disturbance.

None of this is news to most specialists and many within the petroleum industry, but politicians, the media, and the public at large aren't hearing about it. Thanks to this book, they soon will. Thoroughly accessible, surprisingly charming, and filled with entertaining anecdotes, it demonstrates why a worldwide energy crisis is just around the corner. And, though the near-term scenario is ugly, Deffeyes tells us what we can do to thrive after Hubbert's peak has passed.

[UPRR engineer]

Heres a book to get, info below from Barnes & Noble website

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage

FROM THE PUBLISHER
In 1956, geophysicist M. King Hubbert -- then working at the Shell research lab in Houston -- predicted that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized and occasionally ridiculed by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970. The hundred-year period during which most of the world's oil was discovered became known as Hubbert's peak -- a span of time almost comically shorter than the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form.
Using the same methods that Hubbert used to make his stunningly accurate prediction, Kenneth Deffeyes finds that world oil production will peak within five years and that there isn't anything we can do to stop it. New exploration and production technologies can't save us, and plans to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and other areas to drilling offer no more than a small and soon-to-be-forgotten blip on the production curve. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot -- and almost certainly will not -- be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe of shortages, soaring prices, and global economic, agricultural, and possibly political disturbance.

None of this is news to most specialists and many within the petroleum industry, but politicians, the media, and the public at large aren't hearing about it. Thanks to this book, they soon will. Thoroughly accessible, surprisingly charming, and filled with entertaining anecdotes, it demonstrates why a worldwide energy crisis is just around the corner. And, though the near-term scenario is ugly, Deffeyes tells us what we can do to thrive after Hubbert's peak has passed.

[UPRR engineer]

If your wondering when im gonna drop it.. its now unless some else chimes in again

[UPRR engineer]

If your wondering when im gonna drop it.. im going to now, unless some else chimes in again

[Guest]

Coal to fuel oil...already big in China and South Africa. There is a company getting a coal-to-fuel plant going in Pennsylvania. I hear rumors that the NS is interested, since they have substantial holdings in the coal industry.

http://www.ultracleanfuels.com/

-r