delvyrails wrote:Much as I would prefer to write that rails can be the major factor in saving the nation energy-wise, they haven't the leverage to do so. According to figures I've seen, railroads use only about 2% of our energy; but automobiles use about two-thirds of our oil.But your assumption and comparison of fuel usage is based both modes consuming and using equally. If rail is indeed more efficient than auto, then usage means nothing unless adjusted for relative efficiency. Or, in other words, it has to be based on work accomplished by one common unit of measure, say a gallon: one gallon of gas (auto) produces X amount of work, one gallon of diesel (rail) produces plus or minus X. Then you can make a relative comparison of which will serve better.
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Railroad Forums
The End of Cheap Oil
- General discussion about railroad operations, related facilities, maps, and other resources.
Moderator: Robert Paniagua
henry6,
We live in a democracy, and most adults want to keep it that way. The people individually, not the railfans or government officials, get to decide for themselves for each trip what is the most "efficient" travel means.
Democracy would end if we just continue to "drilll, baby, drill". The resulting mess would lead to an authoritarian government that would determine where people could live and work for the greatest "efficiency". We had plenty of examples for that behind the Iron Curtain, particularly Rumania.
Don't despair. With short-range electric vehicles as the personal-transportation norm and with long distance air travel limited because of its pollution, there will be a larger market for train travel. We may even put our plug-in cars aboard an auto train and ride the train overnight while our cars are being recharged.
We live in a democracy, and most adults want to keep it that way. The people individually, not the railfans or government officials, get to decide for themselves for each trip what is the most "efficient" travel means.
Democracy would end if we just continue to "drilll, baby, drill". The resulting mess would lead to an authoritarian government that would determine where people could live and work for the greatest "efficiency". We had plenty of examples for that behind the Iron Curtain, particularly Rumania.
Don't despair. With short-range electric vehicles as the personal-transportation norm and with long distance air travel limited because of its pollution, there will be a larger market for train travel. We may even put our plug-in cars aboard an auto train and ride the train overnight while our cars are being recharged.
John Pawson
delvyrails wrote:henry6,What you are saying here has nothing to do with what I said and believe. My post was about the consistancy of comparing a gallon of fuel consumed by each mode in order to be apple to apple instead of apple to orange. If an auto gets 25mpg and can move 5 people 100 miles on 4 gallons, then 100 cars can move 500 people 100 miles on 400 gallons of fuel. Not having any figures for a diesel locomotive, but the rhetorical question is how much fuel does it take for a diesel locomotive to move 500 people 100 miles? Is it more or less than the 400 gallons of gas for the car and what is the relatiave costs of each? That was the point I was trying to make, not make a statement of train vs. anything else, nor take any political stance.
We live in a democracy, and most adults want to keep it that way. The people individually, not the railfans or government officials, get to decide for themselves for each trip what is the most "efficient" travel means.
Democracy would end if we just continue to "drilll, baby, drill". The resulting mess would lead to an authoritarian government that would determine where people could live and work for the greatest "efficiency". We had plenty of examples for that behind the Iron Curtain, particularly Rumania.
Don't despair. With short-range electric vehicles as the personal-transportation norm and with long distance air travel limited because of its pollution, there will be a larger market for train travel. We may even put our plug-in cars aboard an auto train and ride the train overnight while our cars are being recharged.
Well here is a figure, that same car may run at 25 mpg but not with 4 or 5 people in it.
As for train a 7 car train capacity of about 840 people will stop and go at about 13 station and travel 63 miles on 143 gallons of diesel Fuel.
The dispary will realy get confusing as a car is turned off after each run and may only Idle for 3 to 5 minutes while getting that newspaper or Bacon and Ege sandwich.
The train needs to be running at least two hours before to do brake test , cab signal test etc and needs to keep idling to keep the test valid.
As for train a 7 car train capacity of about 840 people will stop and go at about 13 station and travel 63 miles on 143 gallons of diesel Fuel.
The dispary will realy get confusing as a car is turned off after each run and may only Idle for 3 to 5 minutes while getting that newspaper or Bacon and Ege sandwich.
The train needs to be running at least two hours before to do brake test , cab signal test etc and needs to keep idling to keep the test valid.
If Conductors are in charge, why are they promoted to be Engineer???
Retired Triebfahrzeugführer. I am not a moderator.
Retired Triebfahrzeugführer. I am not a moderator.
DutchRailnut and henry6,
So what? Do most people live near a railroad station and travel only to places near rail stations?
These theoretical efficiency concepts are not relevant to most trips.
So what? Do most people live near a railroad station and travel only to places near rail stations?
These theoretical efficiency concepts are not relevant to most trips.
John Pawson
it all gets a bit murky . very seldom does a car have 4 people in it . here , i think the average occupancy is 1.5 persons . a car that does have 4 people in it is quite efficent . a train that has few people on it is very in efficent . both have thier place , and both need to be made alot more efficent . its about having options , more choice , and efficent modes avaliable .
I get annoyed when people oppose the introduction of public transport on the grounds its somehow forcing them to use it . or the ," youll never get me or others out of their cars" arguement . Go ahead stay in your car , but give others the freedom to se public transport if they want . after all , theyve been subsidising your car use for years .
I get annoyed when people oppose the introduction of public transport on the grounds its somehow forcing them to use it . or the ," youll never get me or others out of their cars" arguement . Go ahead stay in your car , but give others the freedom to se public transport if they want . after all , theyve been subsidising your car use for years .
Moderator worldwide railfan , Rail travel & trip reports
The only train trips I regret are the ones I didn't take.
The only train trips I regret are the ones I didn't take.
Eather way, cars or trains, were still going down. Anyone who thinks wind, solar, coal or nuke will save us hasn't thrown in the copper factor. All that straw grasping is only speeding up oil consumption which is only bringing doomsday even closer.
I wouldn't buy into the "doomsday" scenario so quickly. One thing that happens during an economic slowdown is that people have to abandon unrealistic lifestyles and plans. Then the economy rebounds under a more realistic set of rules.
The place I worked at last year had recently relocated from the Hudson Valley (Newburgh area) to Allentown. Some of the executives were still commuting on a daily basis, and some other people were looking at property in the Poconos, forty or more miles from here, but convenient if the spouse had a second job "back home", or was job-hunting in New York or New Jersey.
Recent events are putting a damper un unrealistic expectations like those. Location and commuting possibilities are going to become more of a factor when seeking employment . That's an example of how a market economy adjusts.
The reason I'm pushing both electrification and the all-out pursuit of renewable energy sources is precisely because it would make all of us less vulnerable to economic changes, which seem likely to intensify as more of the world industrializes. The price tag will be very steep, but the benefits are permanent.
The place I worked at last year had recently relocated from the Hudson Valley (Newburgh area) to Allentown. Some of the executives were still commuting on a daily basis, and some other people were looking at property in the Poconos, forty or more miles from here, but convenient if the spouse had a second job "back home", or was job-hunting in New York or New Jersey.
Recent events are putting a damper un unrealistic expectations like those. Location and commuting possibilities are going to become more of a factor when seeking employment . That's an example of how a market economy adjusts.
The reason I'm pushing both electrification and the all-out pursuit of renewable energy sources is precisely because it would make all of us less vulnerable to economic changes, which seem likely to intensify as more of the world industrializes. The price tag will be very steep, but the benefits are permanent.
Last edited by 2nd trick op on Wed Jan 21, 2009 12:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
What a revoltin' development this is! (William Bendix)
Well there goes the Banks and the Market.... Anyone still think we can pull out? Oil is dragging us all down, all the side effects are happening just like forecasted. Next up is the automakers and the airlines, trains will be in there somewhere or soon after. See how its too late for electricity. Not good.
UPRR engineer wrote:
As was noted previously, there's still plenty of petroleum out there, just not recoverable at $20/barrel. A free economy has an unlimited capacity to adjust. It is true that the present circumstances might bring an end to our "use it now, throw it away" lifestyle, and that might temporarily reduce industrial activity and the rail traffic that goes with it. But a recycling-based economy generates traffic, too, and the energy-efficiency advantage held by the rails will continue to work in their favor.
Now about that stock market.......
Historically, economists have referred to panics/depressions/recessions as "corrections", a time when misguided investments and economic policies have been identified and abandoned, Most of the prolonged hard times, as in the 1930's, were prolonged in large part because the politicians refused to abandon their economic folderol. (Can you say "Freddie Mac" and "Fannie Mae", boys and girls?)
I don't think the Dow_Jones has yet hit bottom, or will for some time, but if I could generate some extra cash, I'd put it into fractional share/dividend reinvestement plans in solid, conservative firms that sell a lot of their output to other businesses ... companies like GE, DuPont and Caterpillar, and of course, the major freight roads. People who followed this course over the lears 1973-1982 reaped subsantial rewards when the markets rebounded, as they always do.
And as I've said before, most of the finer things in life were there a long time before the era of automotive dominance.
Anyone think we can still pull out?Yep.
As was noted previously, there's still plenty of petroleum out there, just not recoverable at $20/barrel. A free economy has an unlimited capacity to adjust. It is true that the present circumstances might bring an end to our "use it now, throw it away" lifestyle, and that might temporarily reduce industrial activity and the rail traffic that goes with it. But a recycling-based economy generates traffic, too, and the energy-efficiency advantage held by the rails will continue to work in their favor.
Now about that stock market.......
Historically, economists have referred to panics/depressions/recessions as "corrections", a time when misguided investments and economic policies have been identified and abandoned, Most of the prolonged hard times, as in the 1930's, were prolonged in large part because the politicians refused to abandon their economic folderol. (Can you say "Freddie Mac" and "Fannie Mae", boys and girls?)
I don't think the Dow_Jones has yet hit bottom, or will for some time, but if I could generate some extra cash, I'd put it into fractional share/dividend reinvestement plans in solid, conservative firms that sell a lot of their output to other businesses ... companies like GE, DuPont and Caterpillar, and of course, the major freight roads. People who followed this course over the lears 1973-1982 reaped subsantial rewards when the markets rebounded, as they always do.
And as I've said before, most of the finer things in life were there a long time before the era of automotive dominance.
Last edited by 2nd trick op on Tue Jan 20, 2009 1:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
What a revoltin' development this is! (William Bendix)
If by chance you dont watch the price of a barrel, watch for the price to jump back up here in the next few months. Russia is pretty much depended on selling the stuff to stay a float, be it war or they decide to turn the valves off for awhile.
On the market side, the ship is still taking on water. Printing off more money to artificially inflate it for a little while. When oil jumps back up there with this up coming depression we're facing, i think thats when you'll really see the railroads start doing bad.
On the market side, the ship is still taking on water. Printing off more money to artificially inflate it for a little while. When oil jumps back up there with this up coming depression we're facing, i think thats when you'll really see the railroads start doing bad.
with oil at record low prices. I guess there is nothing to talk about anymore. 
-gary
“If practice makes perfect, and if nobody's perfect, why practice?"
“If practice makes perfect, and if nobody's perfect, why practice?"
i doubt thats going to last . in fact the current low demand (for almost every commodity) means no new capacity coming online , so when the world economy bounces back , there is no new oil to supply it .
Moderator worldwide railfan , Rail travel & trip reports
The only train trips I regret are the ones I didn't take.
The only train trips I regret are the ones I didn't take.
I'm pretty much in agreement with Mr. Benton's assessment; the supply of oil is finite, and there hasn't been a major discovery in thirty years. So long-term, there is nowhere for the price to go but up.
But that having been said, I think it's likely that demand has, for the time being, been reduced to a point where we won't see $4.00 gasoline this summer; the professionals have cited a market driven by "speculative interest" since at least 2005, and that pressure appears to have died down.
So how do we make use of this little breather? Again, we have to understand that the most shallow of the politicians are driven by the thinking of the front row at WrestleMania, so any real help is likely to come from the private sector, where reason rules and those in charge plan further ahead.
I have some friends who drive for a living, and according to them, the domestic trucking industry is trying to find alternatives for the longer hauls. Back in the times of cheaper fuel, the time-sensitivity of most goods had sharpened the truckers' adavantage to the point where rail service for even such large markets as East Coast-Chicago weren't considered for anything of value
If the new market realities again make rail carriage viable for relatively short distances, then the pressures on a limited rail infrastructure are going to increase, and rapidly; development of new corridors and the possiblity of extending commutation zones further into the exurbs will strengthen the push for more multiple-track mains and additional interlocking plants. These will cost money, and the freight roads aren't going to pick up the tab wihout a quid pro quo.
There's likely to be a break in the action while the new administration wrestles (bad metaphor
) with some issues closer to the public's "hot button"; but the issue itself is not going to go away.
But that having been said, I think it's likely that demand has, for the time being, been reduced to a point where we won't see $4.00 gasoline this summer; the professionals have cited a market driven by "speculative interest" since at least 2005, and that pressure appears to have died down.
So how do we make use of this little breather? Again, we have to understand that the most shallow of the politicians are driven by the thinking of the front row at WrestleMania, so any real help is likely to come from the private sector, where reason rules and those in charge plan further ahead.
I have some friends who drive for a living, and according to them, the domestic trucking industry is trying to find alternatives for the longer hauls. Back in the times of cheaper fuel, the time-sensitivity of most goods had sharpened the truckers' adavantage to the point where rail service for even such large markets as East Coast-Chicago weren't considered for anything of value
If the new market realities again make rail carriage viable for relatively short distances, then the pressures on a limited rail infrastructure are going to increase, and rapidly; development of new corridors and the possiblity of extending commutation zones further into the exurbs will strengthen the push for more multiple-track mains and additional interlocking plants. These will cost money, and the freight roads aren't going to pick up the tab wihout a quid pro quo.
There's likely to be a break in the action while the new administration wrestles (bad metaphor
) with some issues closer to the public's "hot button"; but the issue itself is not going to go away.What a revoltin' development this is! (William Bendix)
toolmaker wrote:with oil at record low prices. I guess there is nothing to talk about anymore.
Ya need to watch some CNBC or read the Wall Street Journal there bud. It's a bit scary how many people there are in the country not watching whats going on or paying any attention to the warnings.