• My near term hopes for Amtrak, beyond basic survival

  • Discussion related to Amtrak also known as the National Railroad Passenger Corp.
Discussion related to Amtrak also known as the National Railroad Passenger Corp.

Moderators: GirlOnTheTrain, mtuandrew, Tadman

  by hsr_fan
 
The following is my near term wish list for Amtrak, keeping things realistic (no new TGV style services or 300 mph maglev trains included here). If I were in charge of Amtrak, I guess you could say these would be my "pet projects", so to speak. These are things that I would like to see happen within the next couple of years...certainly within no more than 5 years. Yes, they are somewhat biased toward east coast services, being that I live on the east coast and am an Amtrak customer primarily in this region. What are your opinions on the likelihood of the following?

1) Restoration of some form of basic food service to the NYP - Albany Empire Corridor trains

2) Restoration of, at the very least, the three already completed Turboliner trainsets to Empire Corridor service

3) Restoration of full first class Acela Express amenities

4) Reduction of Acela Express running time to no more than 2 hours, 45 minutes NYP - WAS and 3 hours 15 minutes NYP - BOS

5) Implementation of the long promised 110 mph running on the Amtrak-owned portion of the Chicago - Detroit corridor

6) Same as #5 for the long promised 110 mph operation on Illinois' Chicago - Springfield corridor

7) Introduction of 110 mph all-electric push-pull Keystone service to Harrisburg (looks like this one will actually happen)

8) Place an order for much needed new Viewliner diners and additional Viewliner sleepers to begin retirement of the remaining Heritage cars

For the west coast, I guess my main goal would be speed increases beyond 79 mph for the Cascades and Amtrak California services, but that would be dependent upon state supported infrastructure upgrades.

  by AmtrakFan
 
I like your idea but can I add a few more?
1. Extenstion of 798/799 to SFO
2. Get more Wrecked Superliners back out
3. Bring Back the Pioneer/Desert Wind
4. Put Superliners on the Cardinal

  by hsr_fan
 
AmtrakFan wrote:2. Get more Wrecked Superliners back out
Indeed, that's a given! I may not agree with everything that David Gunn has done, but the wreck repairs and car refurbishments are certainly one bright spot of his administration.

  by wigwagfan
 
AmtrakFan wrote:I like your idea but can I add a few more?
2. Get more Wrecked Superliners back out
3. Bring Back the Pioneer/Desert Wind
What is the rationale of #2?

Right now, the only Superliner equipment that Amtrak is short of is sleepers. Without going into the debate as to whether they should exist at all, I have two independent sources that agree that there are EXACTLY 12 sleepers out of service at the present time.

Is that enough to increase sleeper capacity on more than one or two routes, given that each route requires at least three trainsets to operate? Then, what routes will get the extra sleeper cars? (I guess the Coast Starlight and the Empire Builder?)

Coach capacity is well known to be more than adequate, as most LD coaches are running around 50% load factor. If anything, Amtrak could SAVE money by sidelining a few coaches. There would be absolutely no loss in revenue, and a decrease in maintenance cost. Sell off the good, useful equipment to a Canadian or South American railroad for something closer to market value rather than scrap value.

We could argue the possibility of Amtrak converting coaches into sleepers, but I won't even start on how I will oppose that.

Regarding #3 - again, what is the rationale? Because there was once a train there, there should be a train there again?

Yes, communities want the train. Yes, there is a perception that has some merit that people like trains. But why, why spend millions of dollars to fund a train (I'll use the Pioneer solely as an example because I have ridden it and it is closer to my home), where there are already numerous transportation options throughout the corridor - both land and air?

The fact is, Amtrak cannot cover its operational costs. Greyhound does. Alaska/Horizon does. Skywest does (flying for both Delta and United). Southwest does. Big Sky Air does. So what is the justification for installing a government subsidized service where FIVE other companies provide a similar service, and cover their direct operational costs? This is not an underserved market, and the lack of Amtrak currently proves that alternatives do exist, are being used, and there is no loss of mobility for residents in the area. Simply put, Amtrak is not a "need" that could be argued on, for example, the Empire Builder route.

Again - I would love to see a train run between PDX and SLC, but there is no reason for a subsidized service to create a level of unfair competition amongst FIVE other, privately capitalized businesses, each of whom are successful. If the train can run and cover its costs, go for it! (Then again, if that were possible, it wouldn't be an Amtrak operation.)

Otherwise, the debate will become not how much do we spend on Amtrak, but how much will we spend on the companies that fail or have to cut back, because of Amtrak - both direct (in the forms of guaranteed contracts, bailouts, and other payments) and indirect (unemployment, pension bailouts, airport costs that are no longer being absorbed by gate rent and landing fees, loss of economic benefit).

  by rhallanger
 
The viewliners, if things go as planned, should happen sooner, rather than later. It is proposed to buy 48 - 50 Viewliners in Amtraks 2005-2009 Strategic Plan (plus 28 DMUs). Half of the Viewliners would replace diners and the other half would become crew dorm/sleepers. You can read it on Amtrak's Strategic Plan, Page 38. Amtrak will retire the 48 Heritage Diners & Dorms and replace with Viewliners.

http://www.amtrak.com/pdf/strategic05.pdf

  by Gilbert B Norman
 
Welcome back, Mr. Wigwag--

If you choose, would you be willing to share with the Forum how you envision future rail passenger service (note my avoidance of the term Amtrak). It would appear this vision does not include long distance services.

Incidentally, from what I have reviewed at the web, the intercity passenger train in South America appears to be far more extinct than in North America (I believe there is "heavy' rail commuter service around Buenos Aires, and several other cities such as Rio and Sao Paulo have "light' rapid transit); therefore I must question to what extent there would be a market in South America for any surplus Superliner equipment.

In closing we should note that discussion of South American rail operations should move forth at Mr. Benton's Worldwide Forum.

  by AmtrakFan
 
Mr. WigWagFan,
They are short of EVERYTHING in the Superliner Fleet. They only have four Transition Sleepers above the minimum needed to cover the consists to which those cars are assigned..
  by 2nd trick op
 
A very sensible set of priorities, Mr hsr. I particularly concur on the Chicago-Springfield uprade; It has the population density, and alternatives exist to re-route the freight traffic. The Empire Corridor should also draw more attention, particularly in the light of renewed (and likely continuing) energy pressures.

The Chicago-Detroit service, regrettably, is another story. While it is anchored by two major cities, there is relatively little in between and Detroit, being the original capial of the auto industry and having relatively little population in center-city, simply isn't a good fit. The presence of an international boundary also impedes development of a second corridor eastward to link wih the Empire at Buffalo.

With energy concerns again in the spotlight after a long hiatus, and the likelihood that futher increases in oil production and/or refinery capacity will not be forthcoming, it would seem logical to this writer to emphasize development/expansion of the intermediate-distance corridors. I believe that an interconnected network of 200-400 mile corridor services could eventually be developed for all that portion of the country east of Minneapolis/Kansas City/Dallas/San Antonio.
  by jp1822
 
1. Restoration of Federal/Twillight Shoreliner - to serve Virginia Tidewater Region and DC-Boston on former Federal Schedule. The original Twilight Shoreliner schedule was not too passenger friendly for Washington DC/Baltimore and Rhode Island/Boston areas. Federal schedule was more appealing, but I'd like to see return of sleeping cars to Virginia Tidewater region rather than a change of trains.

2. Development of an Eastern Long Distance Sightseer Car - be it the First Class Lounge idea in the Heritage Crew/Dorm that was originally planned or reconfiguration of current Amfleet long distance cafe/lounge cars (wider windows or addition of windows for better viewing).

3. Along with the order for additional Viewliners (Diner and Sleepers), better Viewliner utilization in the system to increase capacity.

4. Better onboard service - or at least more universal onboard service

5. Upgraded food service on long distance "day trains" and maintaining sit-down diner on long distance trains that's now in place.

6. More state supported trains i.e. second frequency NYP to Pittsburgh;

Although we talk about restoration of the Pioneer - how about a state supported train to cover Salt Lake City to Portland. I assume this would be funded more by Oregon than any other state. Same for Las Vegas service. The later has been on the drawing boards for years but funding is an issue.

  by wigwagfan
 
Mr. Norman, thank you for your salutation.

Mr. Amtrakfan, please elaborate on how Amtrak is short 'everything'. As I have demonstrated, Amtrak's load factor on the existing LD network does not support an increase in any type of equipment, other than sleepers. This is pulled from data taken from Amtrak's only monthly performance report, as well as the combined views and opinions on various Amtrak and railroad related boards that support the facts outlined by Amtrak's own reporting.

Why spend money repairing cars, just so they can sit in a yard, or even worse - out on the road, not earning revenue (or simply spreading the already scarse revenue out against more cars that require maintenance)? That car on the road, without an corresponding increase in passengers, equals higher maintenance (wear and tear on the car), plus additional fuel consumption for the locomotive.

I agree that any mode of transportation needs to have cars kept in reserve for peak periods or for routine maintenance. The FTA keeps a strict guideline for transit agencies which use federal grants to purchase busses, on the percentage of vehicles they can have out-of-service at any given time. Go over the limit, and you either dispose of vehicles, or you better not ask for any federal funding anytime soon. Amtrak needs to be held to the same or comparable standard. If you have watched the news, I am sure you have heard the situation going on with the questionable use of the debit cards given to Hurricane Katrina survivors, and the credit cards used by government employees engaged in relief efforts for those same survivors, and I will keep it G-rated so if you don't know, just check any of the major news outlets. I heard it from NBC, however.

JP1822: As an Oregon resident, I disagree with state funding of the Pioneer. The current state supported services, the two Cascades runs between Portland and Eugene, have been very poor performers, averaging roughly 25 passengers a day per train. The two thruway busses operated as part of the same service, average about 20 passengers a day per bus. The load factor comes out to about 50% on the busses, but only 10-15% on the trains. Essentially, the bus can handle the same exact work, but at a mere fraction of the cost - in fact the bus could likely support itself, but after years of running the trains they still don't attract ridership.

The trains are much, much more successful north of Portland, where sold-out trains are common, and the service frequency is changed only by the addition of one train (a mid-day schedule), and the elimination of the two busses. Unlike Oregon which has a network of Thruway busses serving Central Oregon and the Oregon Coast, Washington only has the busses that replicate the Seattle-Vancouver, BC route, and I believe one cross-state route.

The geography of Oregon lends itself to that the outer areas of Oregon are much more independent of Portland than so it would seem. The only major area that is dependent on Portland is Salem. Eugene is nearly self-sufficient. So is Medford, and even Klamath Falls. Easten Oregon tends to revolve around Bend, Pendelton, La Grande, Ontario, and even the Tri-Cities (Kennewick, Richland and Pasco, Washington) and Boise, Idaho - not Portland. But Eastern Oregon is so diverse and spread out, and the population density is extremely low, that even bus lines don't make sense - let alone a train. Most counties already have van-pool or van-share programs for those who need medically necessary travel, or other travel for those who cannot travel on their own, and those programs are both successful - and funded largely by ODOT and/or the FTA (or even the Veteran's Administration). The travel from the outer regions into Portland is largely freight movements (many businesses have distribution warehouses in Hermiston/Umatilla), or tourist or other occassional travel.

If in Oregon there is a bright spot for rail, I would leave that to the Portland-Salem corridor, which is just under 50 miles in length, and is shared by Interstate 5 (currently three lanes in each direction) and the former U.S. Highway 99E (which is largely two lanes south of Canby, still in Clackamas County). As we saw even just yesterday, a major wreck can stall traffic for miles upon miles.

I have suggested that ODOT kill the two Cascades trains (leaving the Coast Starlight to serve Albany, Eugene, Chemult and Klamath Falls), and replace the service with commuter trains between Portland and Salem - at least one of the trains could provide a direct, guaranteed connection with a Cascades service train continuing to Seattle, a la the connection between a particular Surliner train and the NB Coast Starlight in Los Angeles (basically a cross-platform connection, baggage automatically transfered, no need to walk into the station; although my experience consisted of waiting for an hour on the platform.)

Now, that said and done, I will reply a second time with Mr. Norman's request for my vision of the entire passenger rail network for the United States...

  by AmtrakFan
 
Mr. Wigwagfan,
Amtrak needs to expand Capacity on LD Trains during peak times and all times during the year. It bothers me to see the same 2 Sleepers and 3 Coaches there were on 5/6 this summer if Amtrak had enough wrecked cars out they could of ran with 3 Sleepers and 4 Coaches. Then when you have Sleepers that could be making money being used as Transition Sleepers AKA Crew Palaces it is pathetic. Amtrak needs to expand capacity especially on 7/8 I was surfing the net for the heck of it and checked on 7/8 most of the Sleepers/Coaches are close to sold out if not sold out half the time.
  by wigwagfan
 
hsr_fan wrote:The following is my near term wish list for Amtrak, keeping things realistic (no new TGV style services or 300 mph maglev trains included here). If I were in charge of Amtrak, I guess you could say these would be my "pet projects", so to speak. These are things that I would like to see happen within the next couple of years...certainly within no more than 5 years. Yes, they are somewhat biased toward east coast services, being that I live on the east coast and am an Amtrak customer primarily in this region. What are your opinions on the likelihood of the following?
Being that I am a west-coaster and have never even been to the "right" coast save for Memphis (which isn't really the coast), I am going to restrict my comments largely to those services offered west of Chicago, with one exception.

That exception being - the NEC has proven, over decades, that it is a vital and essential transit route for both passengers and freight, by various operators, and that the proposal to force the states to take over operation would simply be a disaster in the making. Understanding that parts of the NEC are already owned by the individual states, I propose that the NEC essentially become part of the Interstate Highway System/National Highway System, in which either the states can maintain their own stretches or they can form some sort of partnership or independent public corporation to do so, but the funding would be 80/20 or greater. The sum of the NEC is greater than its parts, and as such national ownership or national recognition is important, as is the rest of the National Highway System.

West of Chicago, I will then separate my comments into short haul/corridor, and long haul.

Short Haul services should be regulated and administered (from a funding standpoint) by the FTA (Federal Transit Administration), not the FRA. The FTA already has the experience to carefully evaluate these types of projects, whereas the FRA's experience is demonstrated to be greatest in freight railroad oversight (safety oversight). The FTA has guidelines for determining the financial viability of such projects when it comes to federal funding for either capital or operating expenses.

It is understood that many of the corridor projects are conceived with the goal of reducing traffic on nearby highways; exactly the same as most FTA related business - busses, light-rail and heavy-rail commuter systems, which all fall under the FTA. The FTA can better analysis other options, to determine whether corridor rail is the 'best' option (and given the number of commuter rail and light-rail systems being planned, it is not necessarily pro-highway/anti-rail).

Amtrak's own commuter and 403(b) operations, using its own accounting, "makes a profit", or covers its operating costs. Certainly this is by design, and by no means faulty - however is this the intent of government? Amtrak, as we speak today, has too many hats to wear, and is distracted. This business should be spun off, which would allow the government to recoup some of the investment it made, while allowing a new profitable business to exist. I agree that Amtrak has had certain tax benefits, and as a government contractor it may be in the best interest for Congress to enact laws which allow certain tax advantages to continue for this new company, as well as any other company engaged in the same business (i.e. First, Herzog, or the freight railroads which perform commuter rail services). This would lower the cost for those other commuter rail lines, and provide little to no financial burden on the government.

This leaves the LD network.

There is a "need", but what is the "need" and how can it be measured? Further, what is the role of government to provide this "need" - is it "essential", is there a severe negative in not providing this "need" that would cause extreme hardship to this nation?

Those questions must be answered, to determine how LD train travel will continue. We can answer it now, as the Bush Administration has been prodding, or we can answer it later, as Congress is doing, but we have to answer it. Let's stop the B.S. and do it.

I envision a LD network that consists of a network of all class 1 mainlines, that can safely operate a passenger train at 55 MPH or greater (and an average speed of probably 30-35 MPH), has a minimum of ABS signalling (preferrably CTC), and had passenger service prior to 1971 - or is a new route built after 1971.

Each route will be designated, and set to bid to private operators. Each operator can pick as many routes as they want to operate, or as little as one. Each route will have a minimum of one daily round-trip serving the entire route. Each route will have a minimum service level, which will include a certain number of coach seats available, sleeping spaces, and access to dining and/or lounge services. The operator must provide or make arrangements for sleeping and lounge/dining services but may contract them out to another company (kind of like the old Pullman Company).

The federal FTA or FRA will create a new agency to oversee the LD network, separate from the corridor/commuter trains as well as the NEC and its connecting services. The role of the new agency will be to manage and oversee the train operators, hold the rights to track access, hold the host railroads accountable for undue passenger train delays (including fines/penalties), as well as hold passenger operators accountable for poor service and/or delays that they cause (which can include fines/penalties, or loss of the contract). In addition, an office will be created to operate trains in the event one of the private operators is unable to fulfill its contract, which will last a minimum of one year, and possibly a maximum of two years with right for renewal.

As the federal government (Amtrak) already owns a fleet of cars, these cars will be made available to the private operators for a lease of $1 per year. After the inital contract, the private operators may purchase the cars, or purchase their own equipment. However, once the existing cars need to be replaced, the operators will be responsible for acquiring their own equipment - with the exception of coaches, which will be paid for, and title held by, the DOT.

The federal government will make payments to assist the operation of these trains in the following ways:

1. Nominal payments to the freight railroads for access to their privately owned right-of-way. This can be in the form of tax credits/deductions, or as a train/mile payment.

2. Federal grants for passenger rail improvements, which reduce train delay by improving track speed or increasing capacity (i.e. new or longer sidings, improved yard trackage, improved station trackage).

3. The federal government will reimburse passenger operators the cost of coach passenger transportation if provided at an "above-the-rails" operating loss.

4. The federal government will also provide a flat fee to the carriers for each coach, dining and lounge car operated, for the transport of those cars; if the passenger operator purchases equipment. During the time the operators lease cars from the federal government, they will not receive a fee, however they will only pay $1 per car per year for the use of the cars.)

If a route receives no bids, then no service will be offered. Individual states can, and are encouraged to, assist in the recruitment of potential operators. However, the routes must be operated as whole components, unless it can be shown that a portion of the route is simply unviable, but other portions have sufficient traffic potential.

Note that I have not made any equipment recommendations unlike the past posters. I am not an equipment utilization manager. I believe these decisions must be made at a local level, based upon sound economics, and knowledge of traffic patterns and load factors. Further, I believe that trains have the advantage of adjusting for loads, unlike airlines (if you schedule a 767-200 but only 60% of it is used, you have to somehow move that aircraft to another route, and replace it with a smaller aircraft, like a 737-400/800/900 or a 757-200, or comparable Airbus.) To make a blanket statement that a particular train must have a certain consist, and even of a certain mix of cars, implies that trains are fixed and cannot adjust for load, resulting in either too much capacity (which wastes money) or too little capacity (which turns away revenue). At the least, the LD trains should have coaches, sleepers and a diner. I disagree with the federal subsidy on sleepers and diners, but I also agree that the LD trains do not make sense without them, it reduces those trains to Greyhound busses on rails, and thus would have no benefit to Greyhound (and we don't subsidize Greyhound, yet they are in business. (Please do not give me the whole "we subsidize highways" line, Greyhound pays highway use, fuel and registration taxes, they pay their share just like any other highway user. Greyhound is not the exclusive user of the roads, they should not be burdened with the entire cost.) The only reason that we are currently restricted to Superliners now, is because that is what exists. It is possible that, given a new "breath of fresh air", that new car designs from foreign makers or even Colorado Railcar, Talgo or Kalawsaki, could rival the old Superliner, even if the new equipment is single-level.

In essence, Amtrak of today, I do not envision a future for. I envision passenger rail with federal leadership and guidance and support, and I support the federal government taking a very proactive look at passenger rail in all its forms - local (transit/commuter), regional (corridor), and long distance, as well as looking over the NEC. I support limited funding of rail services were appropriate and were services are necessary or cannot be provided by other means or the private sector without such partnership. I support financial controls and accounting that are consistent with general practices and industry standards, and as this mode of transportation will receive taxdollar support well into the future, that accounting should be brought all the way down to the route level. I believe the public has a right to know what they are paying for and what the benefit is, and whether a particular route is justified for taxpayer support. I believe that "costs" should be clearly defined, and easy to understand unlike the current calculations. I agree that certain overhead costs are just that, overhead, every company has such costs that are too difficult and meaningless to drive down, that those overhead costs are simply attributed to the overall user (reservations/marketing/sales costs, are a good example. General office/administrative is another.) Any good company knows what its overhead is, keeps those costs as low as possible, and builds that overhead into the prices it sells its product/service for.

I believe the NEC needs to be separated from train operations, there are too many operators as it is. Right now, Amtrak is reduced to Acela (which supposedly used to make an "above-the-rails" profit until the brake issue) and a few other trains. Doing so would create one company whose sole existence is to maintain track and ensure the safety of its operating partners. As a "national highway system" component, there is no profit motive, and the FRA and FTA would oversee it to ensure that its funding (either through direct government grant/subsidy/allocation or through payments by its operators, including transit operators, or a combination of both) is consistent with the goal of maintaining a "state of good repair" and safety, and does not create a culture of waste or cutting corners.
Last edited by wigwagfan on Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

  by wigwagfan
 
AmtrakFan wrote:Mr. Wigwagfan,
Amtrak needs to expand Capacity on LD Trains during peak times and all times during the year. It bothers me to see the same 2 Sleepers and 3 Coaches there were on 5/6 this summer if Amtrak had enough wrecked cars out they could of ran with 3 Sleepers and 4 Coaches. Then when you have Sleepers that could be making money being used as Transition Sleepers AKA Crew Palaces it is pathetic. Amtrak needs to expand capacity especially on 7/8 I was surfing the net for the heck of it and checked on 7/8 most of the Sleepers/Coaches are close to sold out if not sold out half the time.
Again, systemwide coach load factor hovers around 50%.

So what if there are only three coaches on the train, if each coach is half empty, then you ONLY need two coaches to haul the same number of passengers, and you'd still have empty seats available.

If you ran another coach, you would have no more passengers (there's already plenty of room), but you'd have the added expense of hauling that coach around.

Having been involved in capacity planning in a previous job, it is actually OK in certain circumstances NOT to plan for the peak. If, in 365 days in a year, you only operate at "peak" condition for only 20 days, why spend capital funds and operating funds on equipment that won't be used 345 days a year? It is better to increase the price of service for those 20 days to help reduce the load, while at the same time increasing revenue. If you have to turn away four or five passengers, that is no big deal (we're talking less than 1%, statistically they are insignificant). If you add another coach, you are running a car with 60-70 seats, but only five revenue passengers, meaning that car is losing money. If Amtrak is like most transportation providers are requires a high load factor just to break even, you've just turned a profit making train into a loss train - just by adding that one car to accomodate those few extra passengers.

If you could convince me that the train ran 90%+ load factor consistently, then Amtrak should add another coach. Maybe even 80%. Or even stretch to 70% (assuming that Amtrak adds and deletes passengers en-route, so the actual load factor would vary.) But the facts simply do not support it. 50% systemwide load factor for coach is pathetic. No airline would run a route at 50% load factor, even SWA which flies the "old-fashioned" way of point to point with three-four stops en-route. And Greyhound cut numerous routes from its network recently for the same reason (I know, the route that went by my house typically had less than 10 people on board each and every day, and that was after the route was cut from two busses to one bus a day! Before was just as bad.) If a particular train needs a coach, then it can be pulled from another train.

I have already agreed that sleeping cars do run at capacity, so please re-read my post, it specifically and only mentioned coaches. Not sleepers, not transistion sleeper/dorms, not lounges, not diners, not baggage cars or even locomotives, but coaches only.

  by RMadisonWI
 
wigwagfan wrote:Again, systemwide coach load factor hovers around 50%.

So what if there are only three coaches on the train, if each coach is half empty, then you ONLY need two coaches to haul the same number of passengers, and you'd still have empty seats available.

If you ran another coach, you would have no more passengers (there's already plenty of room), but you'd have the added expense of hauling that coach around.
Key point that you are missing is that 50% is more of an average figure. Throughout a trip, there are peaks and valleys in the train's ridership. As an anecdotal example, a couple of years ago I rode the California Zephyr eastbound. In the western portion of Colorado, the coaches were practically deserted. By the time we got to a couple of the more popular stops, the coaches were pretty full. Upon departure from Denver, the coaches were packed.

Averaged out, that train probably had a 50-60% load factor in coach. There were times, however, when it was at 100%. But I suppose you'd still have Amtrak remove a coach from the consist because "the train's only half full." That would work, I guess (assuming we could get some of those Glenwood Springs and Winter Park passengers to travel SLC-Grand Junction instead).

  by AmtrakFan
 
Mr. Madison,
Thank You for helping me make my point. Mr. Wigwagfan you don't realize many people can't get a seat who want to ride Amtrak go esle where which means lost sales because Amtrak doesn't have enough cars.