by Arlington
I'm looking to estimate the effect of TC's entry into DAL-HOU on the air carriers.
To do this, I'm going to use the Acela's entrance into WAS-NYC
The "air" market DCA-LGA was down by half in the decade between 2007 and 2017
Using: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?pn=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
2006 688k
2007 680k
2008 546k (recession begins)
2009 451k
2010 403k
2011 381k
2012 366k
2013 425k
2014 413k
2015 360k
2016 374k
2017 305k
I'm going to say that that's what happens to a short distance city pair when rail gets its act together.
Moreso in D/FW - Houston because, unlike the NEC, TC will be an entirely new entrant, will have higher average speeds, and a smaller gate-to-gate disadvantage vs Air.
Today the annual air market (from BTS) blending 2016 & 2017 numbers
HOU-DAL = 620k on WN
IAH-DFW = 555k on UA+AA
The entry of TC will add frequencies equal to WNs, but at triple WN's capacity (train =400 seats per departure)
That's the equivalent of 3 NEW SOUTHWESTS being added to the market.
Swag that at 8000 seats per day 220 days per year and 4000 seats on the other 145 days.
That's 2.3m NEW seats per year in a market that, today, has 1.2m passengers.
And like the Chunnel, once the tracks are laid, even if the rails go bankrupt (as the Chunnel did, unable to pay its debt) the rail operators are never going away (as Eurostar has stayed, and basically driven AF/VS/BA out of the LON-PAR local market forever.
My forecast for "Year 3" of TC Operations
HOU-DAL = 300k on WN
IAH-DFW = 200k on UA+AA
HOU-DAL = 1,500k on TC (roughly 1/3 taken by taking half of air's passengers, 2/3 taken from driving)
To do this, I'm going to use the Acela's entrance into WAS-NYC
The "air" market DCA-LGA was down by half in the decade between 2007 and 2017
Using: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?pn=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
2006 688k
2007 680k
2008 546k (recession begins)
2009 451k
2010 403k
2011 381k
2012 366k
2013 425k
2014 413k
2015 360k
2016 374k
2017 305k
I'm going to say that that's what happens to a short distance city pair when rail gets its act together.
Moreso in D/FW - Houston because, unlike the NEC, TC will be an entirely new entrant, will have higher average speeds, and a smaller gate-to-gate disadvantage vs Air.
Today the annual air market (from BTS) blending 2016 & 2017 numbers
HOU-DAL = 620k on WN
IAH-DFW = 555k on UA+AA
The entry of TC will add frequencies equal to WNs, but at triple WN's capacity (train =400 seats per departure)
That's the equivalent of 3 NEW SOUTHWESTS being added to the market.
Swag that at 8000 seats per day 220 days per year and 4000 seats on the other 145 days.
That's 2.3m NEW seats per year in a market that, today, has 1.2m passengers.
And like the Chunnel, once the tracks are laid, even if the rails go bankrupt (as the Chunnel did, unable to pay its debt) the rail operators are never going away (as Eurostar has stayed, and basically driven AF/VS/BA out of the LON-PAR local market forever.
My forecast for "Year 3" of TC Operations
HOU-DAL = 300k on WN
IAH-DFW = 200k on UA+AA
HOU-DAL = 1,500k on TC (roughly 1/3 taken by taking half of air's passengers, 2/3 taken from driving)
"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn