gokeefe wrote:No need for more tunnels if you're substituting for existing trains. Demand is at close to 100% of available inventory.
You miss the point. Projections of travel on the NEC are all over the place. Anywhere from the present 2 - 3 % per year to almost double in 10 - 14 years. The higher growth rates are probably expected if present track work allows the hoped for 160 MPH operation between Newark and Trenton. But we certainly cannot find a good crystal ball. If the higher figures are attainable then at least 3 operative tunnel bores will be needed and then all 4. Food for thought "If" the higher demand happens then 3 operational AX-1s would cover non stop NYP <> PHL hourly clockers with 2 as standby and 1 or 2 in major overhaul. Then the stated 3 bores going on 4 would definitely be needed.
About the AM-2s. Again it all depends on the NEC passenger growth ? Amtrak has stated in the past that it wants to replace AM-2s on LD trains. That is due to the -2s having 60% more mileage than -1s. But again the "IF" NEC growth is great then the - AM-2s might be re assigned to NEC regional which is on average very low milegage per day .
So just don't make any hard statements of what will happen. Our group certainly does not know and no one else does. However there will be one limiting factor for AM-2 NEC assignments which is lack of storage space for idle times that will have to be mitigated. VRE is doing something in WASH by building its own storage and maintenance across from Ivy City.