A day after a real Co-op delivery and pickup of the empties + 1 momentary drive-by = "THE LINE HAS GONE TO NOTHING!"
Boy, tough room.
Let's please remember that CSOR is not an indie shortline operating in their own vacuum like their next-door neighbors CNZR. They are part of the multi-billion dollar Gennesee & Wyoming borg. Darien, CT headquarters of G&W doesn't make snap judgements or rash decisions on any of their holdings. They play all their reporting marks as strategic chess pieces pan-region. They are horse-traders at swapping lines in and out of the company when they see tactical advantage, or see a lost cause they have to cut ties with. But if one of their reporting marks holds a line that they see deep long-term potential in, they don't panic about dry spells. It's all about the long game.
It's been 3-1/2 years since G&W bought RailAmerica. They've had ample time to plot how SLR, NECR, and CSOR fit their Northeast strategy. They've made no fundamental operational changes to CSOR other than tightening the logistical sharing with NECR. And have loosened the purse-strings for expanding Hartford Yard, plus twisting arms with the state and Amtrak for those freight passing sidings that are being installed with the Springfield Line upgrades and the repairs to the CT River bridge so the weight restrictions to East Hartford got lifted. They've actually let NECR expand by acquiring Claremont & Concord. They've match-funded TIGER grants to get SLR's main up to contiguous 286K. Those are not the actions of a company that's freaking out because a single day's site visit to an irregular customer's siding spots no cars. Long view...everything Darien cares about is about the long view.
What's the long view for the Manchester Secondary? I-84 in downtown Hartford is going to get the living crap torn out of it for a decade-plus when the Aetna Viaduct goes under the knife. It is going to create great--but unfortunately necessary--pain and suffering for movement of goods across the state because of how ill-equipped I-91 is to spread all that load. The state is going to need to triage with every partner it can find for every little thing that helps take an edge off that traffic and helps prop up the shipping economy for the duration of that chaotic disruption. CSOR has lots of options it can mobilize with its east-of-river holdings to grab some business during that disruption and try to keep it. They have CSX increasing its presence in Massachusetts. They have PAS increasing its presence on the Highland. Why wouldn't G&W keep the Manchester Sec. as a key active hold when the planning and prognosis for I-84 are still years out and a very fluid situation?
Moreover, why wouldn't they keep the Manchester Sec. as a key active hold when NEC FUTURE is right now studying that inland bypass for Amtrak on their track, and said bypass just got bumped up in priority by the Shoreline towns thumbs-downing the destruction the I-95 spine would've caused to their towns? Why wouldn't they be thinking "unless there's a full-on collapse in fortunes, we need to see where this goes in case that Willimantic re-connection to NECR gets a recommended rating"? The 84mageddon project gives them 10 years to schlep some business from the compromised shipping access across Greater Hartford; maybe the decade-plus of passenger studies actually reach a recommended alternative by that point that spikes the value of CSOR's line ownership?
CSOR isn't going to be making those long-view decisions by its lonesome in a vacuum. The home office at G&W will be steering that as it works its whole map. This is a much larger and more integrated conglomerate that CSOR belongs to now vs. when they were with RailAmerica and RailTex. The chess board is larger, and the focus on the chess game dwarfs the ebb and flow of the individual marks' business cycles. Looking at an empty Co-op siding on one drive-by misses the whole big picture. G&W didn't keep CSOR and its branchlines in the family and push hard for that bridge repair because the Co-op siding was make-or-break. It's barely a zit; it means nothing to them. The only thing that matters is what potential G&W sees in the long view. We don't know precisely what they're thinking, but the beef-up in Hartford and holding steady on-course elsewhere in Year 4 after the acquisition sure doesn't seem to be telegraphing current or recent anxiety about CSOR's system. That's the only thing that matters.