Buy new Siemens Charger or refurbish Genesis

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Re: Buy new Siemens Charger or refurbish Genesis

Postby Backshophoss » Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:45 am

The F-125 has yet to go to Pueblo(AAR test center) for testing,reportedly has weight issues along with an unproven Cat engine design. :(
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Re: Buy new Siemens Charger or refurbish Genesis

Postby F-line to Dudley via Park » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:57 am

eolesen wrote:1) Options are just that -- options. All that the 150 options for Chargers does is lock in some pricing and volume discounting. Until the options are converted to orders, it's nothing more than a handshake agreement that could go nowhere.


The statie options have already exceeded the statie base order. That's not "nothing". If you're going to assume possibility that the national options will not be picked up (and that's true...it is entirely possible), then you have to apply probabilities that that will be true. And right now the statie options suggest a much higher probability of picking up the national options than walking away from the contract entirely and RFP'ing for something entirely different-and-other that can't be done in less than 5 years.

Possibilities are excellent discussion fodder, but let's please not blindly assume all chances are equal. The grading curve is already stacked in favor of the signed contract.

2) Amtrak has already resigned itself to refurbishing Amfleeets, and with PTC and other initiatives, doesn't have the cash to be converting options into orders.


NONE of these things have anything to do with an order for power, because AMTK's budget does not work as one simplistic lump-sum monolith snapshotted in one single fiscal year. They have business units, they have categorical line items in the business unit budgets, and they have multi-year planning budgets with funding commitments spread far afield across many fiscal years.

They haven't "resigned" themselves to anything. PTC compliance is due in 3 years and 2 months on a mandate that was passed nearly 9 years ago; initiatives like the diesel locomotive signal unit installs have been budgeted for years and are only coming due now for the actual installation contracts. As described at length in the Amfleet Refresh thread...it is NOT POSSIBLE to RFP and order 600 new East Coast coaches and purge the Amfleets in less than 7+ years if they issued the documents this afternoon. The old livery would not have lasted that long, so this refresh was long planned because earliest replacement date physically is what it is. And how do you know that they have no cash for converting options into orders when there have been no base order fulfillments in 2017 putting them on-deadline for options? The statie Chargers don't have a factory delivery deadline until Jan. 2018; no money for national options would've been placed on FY2017 to begin with. Neither would any of the Viewliner 2 options still outstanding because CAF is still wheezing through the base order; better probabilities can be placed on declining some/all of those because of CAF's performance, but nonetheless it's fact that any final decisions on thumbs-up/thumbs-down of V2 leftovers don't have to be made until next year. Please substantiate these broad suppositions with real evidence that they're broke when budgets work as a broad portfolio of line items in constant yearly overchurn.

3) Once the F125 is in service with enough miles to judge it, don't be surprised to see options placed on that engine as well. Let someone else go thru the teething problems of a new type so that they're not bearing the impact.


Place "options" on an engine they already evaluated in the Charger RFP and passed on? No...if they want to end the Charger contract, they start all over again with a brand new RFP and the F125 goes to bat against bid competition all over again. Not only do contracts NOT work the way you describe, but on technical merits ^this^ scenario is extremely unlikely because the F125 model pre-dates the Charger as an offered product but still hasn't gotten out of testing while Chargers have been in revenue service for a couple months now. Again...please assign probabilities based on actual events instead of constructing alternate realities where one's personal make/model rooting interest gerrymanders the whole procurement process to win the day. This is not how it works in the real world.
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Re: Buy new Siemens Charger or refurbish Genesis

Postby D.Carleton » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:46 pm

Backshophoss wrote:The F-125 has yet to go to Pueblo(AAR test center) for testing,reportedly has weight issues along with an unproven Cat engine design. :(

At least one F-125 was in Pueblo at the same time as our Chargers last year.
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Re: Buy new Siemens Charger or refurbish Genesis

Postby Backshophoss » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:12 pm

Testing in secret? EMD/CAT kept a real low profile while there, figure they were not happy with the results........ :(
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